Athena Market Buzz

1430 23052023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened unchanged to marginally higher with Aug at Rm 3440 +12 and by lunch it faced selling pressure only to settle Aug 3393 -35. Palm is finding its place again with soft oils moving up we see the spread again tilting in favour of palm. We repeat that Palm will find very strong support around RM 3150 mark and price below RM 3250 should be made long. At the time of writing this report we are trading Aug at Rm 3384 -44 and with Soft oils maintaining firmness we can expect it to remain here or settle mostly unchanged. Palm will very slowly drift lower and the spread between soybean oil and Palm could once again go around USD 150 where it will become healthy. Over all consumption of Palm is reducing and now Indonesia is also exporting oil increasing over all palm supplies.  CNF India the indicative offers  on CPO are USD 875 July and USD 850 for Aug which compared to Soft oil offers is USD 130 Cheaper. We would suggest our readers not to panic in correction and once the price reduce below RM 3250 be ready to make longs and exit the same if prices move higher towards RM 3750. 


CBOT Soybean oil settled July 48.77 +150 and Aug 48.79+144. This jump came after the market tried to touch 45 and actually bounced back from 45.70. Indians had priced their open fixtures mostly around 46.00 and they will once again be keen to buy when CBOT corrects. Basis on the other hand maintained unchanged positions thus pushing the flat price about USD 25-30 higher. CNF India the offers for bean oil are July at 965, Aug/Sept at 980 and we have not seen any major trades. Bean oil like mentioned before should find strong support at 45.00 mark and the resistance will be around 50.00. At the time of writing this report we are seeing some profit taking and board is down 68 points at 48.09 for July month where we are not seeing any major demand. Locally in India beans are trading at INR 5100 with INR depreciating to 82.80 it appears that for current season these prices on beans will mostly stay in +/-5% zone hence absolutely safe to make longs. Investors should not step in storing soybeans as over all the market will not give opportunity to liquidate with margins and interest only crushers should continue to buy and rotate the stocks. Degum soybean oil replacement cost comes about INR 88,500 against this sellers are at INR 87,000 with absolutely no buying interest. Buyers should not worry about a collapse looking at recession and over supply but also keep in mind depreciating currency , Hot weather and local supply issues to maintain floor around INR 80,000/- or in USD between USD 850-900. 


Sunflower oil is aggressively offered by Russian suppliers and the offers are around USD 930. These prices are about USD 50 lower to bean oil but with current lineups India is already having too much of stock, arrival in the month of May will be about 275,000 MT and Aug too will be equal to 250,000 min. This should ensure supply at most of the ports and thus we don’t expect a rally. Grain corridor issues are used to push the supplies to global market and now it has become a non event. A rally in sunflower oil will happen only if the exports if totally blocked or Ukraine exports its entire stock and this can only happen by end July. We expect a short rally in prices to come around JAS and we suggest our readers to buy only replacement and don’t rush to buy forward months. Locally in India the offers for sunflower oil are at INR 85,000/- with normal buying interest. Sunflower oil is the cheapest oil hence we will continue to consume the same. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Jun 23 -700/-780
  • Jul 23 -750/-850
  • AS 23 -730/-850
  • OND 23 -670/-760
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jun 23  –/-820
  • Jul 23  -800/-870
  • Aug 23 -800/-880
  • AS 23 -780/–
  • OND 23 -550/-750
  • JF 24 –/-850
  • Mch 24 -730/-1000
  • 6 ports Europe June  $890 vs -
  • JAS    $900 vs -
  • OND  $890 vs -
  • JFM   $910 vs
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3393 (-35)
  • H 3468 / L 3382
  • Vol :  30,365
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 855 vs 
  • Jas 825 vs 810 
  • Ond 810 vs 800
  • Jfm 815 vs 805
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Jun 800 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 745 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May/Jun 3700 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 234 (pk) / 237 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 965
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 905
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1260
  • Sbo : 
  • Jul 4864 (-13)
  • Aug 4861 (-18)
  • Sep 4843 (-22)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6666 (-30)
  • Jan 6568 (-14)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 820 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil  FOB 810 vs —
  • Spain offered May/June at USD 930 vs—
  • Italy offered May/June at 925 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for June at USD 930 vs —
  • Turkey indicated for June at USD 890 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.78, RM 4.57 , Rub 79.38  and Euro 1.0792


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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