Athena Market Buzz

1400 22052023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Good Morning ,

Mdex opened lower and by lunch Aug settled -78 at RM 3403 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3406 -75. Production in Palm oil is increasing and on other and the consumption of oils is reducing. China and India are consuming less oil though it may not be linked to recession and could be just because of higher temperatures but its concerning. Palm oil for forward months is trading at a discount off about USD 80-100 from soft oils and now it should be maintained. We maintain that technically and fundamentally we will see Palm bottoming around RM 3150 and it will start finding resistance at RM 3750 and above. As mentioned before if prices correct below RM 3250 one should start making longs and they can exit longs once the prices start trading over MR 3650-3750. CNF India CPO prices are indicated for July at USD 880 and Aug at USD 850. We can expect a maximum of USD 50 correction and traders should not panic at current prices. We are expecting very strong support as downside now seems very limited. 


Soybean oil trade was very volatile on Friday as expectation around Debt ceiling lifted the sentiments but with no confirmation we again saw selling pressure. CBOT bean oil settled July 47.27 -2 and Aug 47.35 -6 which at the time of writing this report is trading marginally higher. As mentioned before we expect strong supports around 45.00 in CBOT and basis should start correcting towards -500 to balance the flat price. Bean oil CNF India is offered at USD 950 for most of the positions and with expected CBOT at 45 and basis at -500 we should remain at CNF 950. Any correction in flat price CNF India should now be owned and we don’t see prices moving below 5% range. Weather , El nino, Crops and Yields will give enough fuel to funds which will act as price support. Bean oil prices in India are offered at USD 86,000-85,000/- and with INR depreciating to 82.80 we don’t see aggressive sellers. Prices have reached in a safe zone where longs have nothing much to worry. 

Ukraine sunflower oil is still trading at a discount to bean oil and we heard India trading some volumes between USD 935-925 range on Friday. Most of the trades were for near by shipments, afloat unsold and little for forward months. CIF India we could still find some sellers at USD 930 for July and Aug shipment but buyers are looking to pay around USD 900 only. These prices on sunflower oil are cheap but with rape seed harvest in their hand farmers are keen to sell their sunseed stock. Ukraine has still about 2 million MT of more sunseed to sell hence we could see a little more pressure on prices. Grain corridor is also extended for another 2 month though we can expect more waiting time and delays in loading. Europe sunflower oil prices are trading around CIF 920 and mostly West Europe is still consuming some sunflower oil. We would suggest our readers to continue to make spot longs and wait for prices to correct below USD 900 to make forward longs ( though if you are brand even current prices are interesting enough to start making partial longs). Locally in India sunflower oil prices are still quoted at INR 85,000/- for near by or forward positions. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • June -700 vs -770
  • July -750 vs -850
  • AS -750 vs -820
  • OND -650 vs -720
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jun ?? vs -770 
  • Jul -750 vs -850 
  • Aug -750 vs -880
  • AS  -730 vs -860
  • OND -500 vs -720 
  • JF ?? vs -870 
  • Mch -750 vs -1030
  • 6 ports Europe June  $890 vs -
  • JAS    $900 vs -
  • OND  $890 vs -
  • JFM   $910 vs -
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3403 (-78)
  • H 3417 / L 3384
  • Vol :  16,290
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 870 vs 
  • Jas 822.5 vs 817.5 
  • Ond 812.5 vs 810
  • Jfm 815 vs 810
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Jun 807.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 775 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May/Jun 3720 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 235 (pk) / 238 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 970
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 910
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1270
  • Sbo : 
  • Jul 4682 (-45)
  • Aug 4692 (-43)
  • Sep 4690 (-37)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6642 (-80)
  • Jan 6532 (-90)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil near by FOB 820 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 810 vs —
  • Spain offered June at USD 920 vs 890
  • Italy offered June at USD 915 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for July / Aug at USD 930 vs —
  • Turkey indicated at USD 890 for Mersin
  • Currency INR 82.80, Rub 79.77, RM 4.55 and Euro 1.089

Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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