Athena Market Buzz

1400 16052023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Morning ,


Key Supports 

Soybeans  1384

Soybean oil 47.50

MDEX 3150


Mdex opened lower and by lunch July was trading -38 at 3578 and Aug which is now active at RM 3482-30. At the time of writing this report Palm has recovered a little and July is trading at RM 3587-29, Aug RM 3488-24. Palm is the costliest of oil at the moment and though Chinese demand is expected to rebound but with the extreme heat predicted for India we can expect over all consumption to suffer putting additional pressure on palm prices. We do expect the prices to slowly drift towards the lower price in the band and taste the supports of Rm 3150 soon. CPO to India was offered at USD 905 for July and 880 for Aug. This price has a potential to lose about USD 100 PMT hence we would suggest our readers not to be in hurry to make longs. MDEX if it crosses RM 3750 mark will become worth selling longs and prices below RM 3450 to 3150 are worth making long for July contract. Aug will become buyable only if it touches RM 3200 Mark. 

 

USDA has casted bearish clouds over the complex but most of the prices are already touching our target levels. Beans should find support soon and Oil can drift a little lower towards 47.50. We would suggest our readers to buy CBOT between 47.50-45.00. We had suggested our readers to make long in basis around -1100 to -1000 level which today is offered to India at -680. Basis has the potential to mover slightly higher to -500 mark which is where it will only make sense to make CBOT long and price basis at the last min. Flat price FOB for MJJ is around USD 940 and CNF India offers for JJA around 995. Flat price bean oil is already attractive and one can make longs between 950-1000 CNF India. The downside potential will be limited to USD 900 CNF India at least for the JJA and any pressure on prices will depend on how the weather behaves for India. This year its expected that due to extreme heat India will have issues with the ground water and also crop size. Falling soybean seed prices in India are no incentive for farmers to plant more hence in OND we will analyse new factors which can give direction to bean oil prices. Locally in India the soybean oil prices are offered at INR 850 plus duty for Kandla and INR 900 duty paid JNPT with limited buying interest. Most of the business is done over weekend where we see spike in future pushing local player to make longs and this week will also be no different. 


Ukraine is still confused with the grain corridor and though Turkey is confident of an extension , Ukraine is expecting the same to be not operational. Ukraine has only 2 million MT of seed and Russia is having about 7 million MT. This would bring about 800k oil from Ukraine and about 2 million Mt of sun oil from Russian after deducting the domestic consumption for food. Russian oil finds exit to China by rails and is cheaper way of transport compared to sea freight which is still trading between USD 100-120 depending on the vessel size. India is offered sunflower oil at USD 970 but buyers are looking at lower levels. Mostly this week is non event and we have not heard any major trades except the pricing of existing commitments. Aggressive offers are possible on afloat unsold vessels to India like one for Kakinada and this may trade lower. Turkey the offers are starting between USD 900-890 depending on port while west Europe is being offered at USD 950. Cheaper rape seed oil will compete with sunflower oil and keep the prices under check hence we suggest our readers to buy only for current months and wait till the offers drop by about USD 50 to make forward longs. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May -700N/-740N
  • June -700/-750
  • Jul -780/-820
  • Aug -750/-850
  • OND -600/-750
  • Brazil SBO
  • May -/-750
  • Jun -/-750
  • Jul -750/-850
  • Aug -800/-870
  • AS -780/-830
  • OND -600/-750
  • JF-24 -/-900
  • 6 ports Europe June 950 vs -
  • JAS   955 vs -
  • OND 945 vs -
  • JFM  955 vs
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3482 (-30)
  • H 3558 / L 3460
  • Vol :  31,146
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 905  vs 
  • Jas 850 vs 842.5
  • Ond 830 vs 825 trd 825
  • Jfm 832.5 vs 827.5
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Jun 860 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 770 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 3850 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 239 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May/Jun 990
  • Rbdpkoln: May/Jun 930
  • Rbdpks: May/Jun 1330
  • Sbo : 
  • Jul 4959  (-10)
  • Aug 4949 (-11)
  • Sep 4824 (-7)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6834 (-8)
  • Jan 6704 (+6)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 840 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 830 vs —
  • Spain offered for May/ June at USD 950 vs —
  • Italy offered for May/ June at USD 945 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for May/June at USD 965 vs 950 
  • Turkey Mersin offered at USD 900 vs — 
  • Currency INR 82.19, RM 4.49, 79.95, and Euro 1.0895

Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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