Athena Market Buzz

1530 10052023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good Morning ,

Mdex opened lower over looking weaker rival oils and profit taking around RM 3750 levels. By lunch we had settled Palm July at Rm 3650 -59 and at the time of writing this report we are trading at RM 3623 -86. As expected longs are exiting their positions and the sell off could continue till we reach Rm 3500 below which it does not make sense to sell longs or  build fresh shorts. Mdex could again find supports between RM 3450 -3250 and we will  see good buying activity. Please note every time we correct upwards and come down the resistance keeps getting lower. RM 3750 continues to remain the resistance but for Aug month we see the resistance only at RM 3650. Buyers who want to hedge their longs or create fresh shorts could wait for prices to move back around Rm 3750 or higher till then its best to maintain positions or add to longs if prices correct further. CNF India the offers have corrected to USD 930 for July and 910 for Aug months . These prices are once again lower by USD 80 over bean oil but Cheap sunflower oil is still competing strongly. We expect the downsides to get arrested around RM 3250 mark where it will again become attractive for destinations like India and China. 


CBOT bean oil corrected again despite of hopeful economic outlook. US CPI increased 0.4% almost touching 5% estimate as inflation continues to fall. This raises hope around stability of interest Raes though the inflation rates is still highest. Bean oil Settled -99 for most of the positions with July at 52.05 and Aug at 51.83 which at the time of writing this report is trading July -38 at 51.67, and Aug -32 at 51.51. As mentioned before CBOT could test 51.25 mark and may slip even below 50.00 but flat price may remain supported owing to firmer basis. Basis sellers are asking now at -900 which has a potential to rise towards -500. CNF India offers on bean oil for most positions is at USD 1015 against this sunflower oil sellers are looking to sell at USD 980. We will suggest our readers to look at any major correction for making long as USD 950 still hold very strong support. 

Black Sea grain deal could be extended for another 2 months and it appears that every time sanctions are imposed Russian authorities threaten to stall the ships and once the agreement is reached smooth passage is further granted. We don’t expect the war to end soon and agri commodities will continuously be under pressure. On Sunflower oil side some sellers are offering USD 980 to India and they could do lower prices. Buyers on the other hand after buying USD 970 are targeting lower levels of USD 950 and we expect that these prices will fins support around USD 900 mark. Destinations like India will consume more palm specially in southern state and currently there is no supply shortage. We will suggest all refiners to keep buying at a replacement and buy fir forward months only when prices correct below USD 950. 



  • Argentina SBO
  • May -900N/-980N
  • June -900/-980
  • Jul -910/-1010
  • AS -870/-980
  • OND -650/-800
  • Brazil SBO
  • May -/-950
  • Jun -/-950
  • Jul -920/-1000
  • AS -920/-1030
  • OND -650/-820
  • JF-24 -/-1000
  • Mch-24 -/-1150
  • 6 ports Europe SFO 6 ports($)
  • MJ   980 vs 945
  • JAS 985 vs 950
  • OND 970 vs 935
  • JFM  980 vs 945
  • Palm oil BMD mkt close (11/5/2023, 6.00PM)
  • May 3800 -130
  • Jun 3784 -101
  • Jul 3604 -105
  • (Hi 3735 Lo 3585)
  • Aug 3513 -109
  • Ttl vol 63,912
  • Dce mkt 
  • Sep 6906 -260
  • Jan 6792 -218
  • (sett: Sep 7008[+102], Jan 6886[+94])
  • eCbot 
  • BO Jul -31 Aug -33
  • BNS Jul -4.25 Aug -2.5
  •  
  • EUR 1.0927
  • RM 4.4610
  • Crude Jun 73.11 +0.55
  • Oln
  • Jun 920 vs ??
  • JAS 862.50 vs 857.50
  • OND 845 vs 840
  • JFM 845 vs 840
  • Strn (dlvd): Jun 875
  • Pfad (dlvd): Jun 775
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB USD 840 SPOT
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 830 SPOT
  • Spain indicated for May/ June at USD 960 vs —
  • Italy indicated for May/ June at USD 955 vs —
  • CIF LW India indicative for May at USD 980 vs —
  • Turkey sellers CIF Mersin 920, Cif Izmir 900 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.00, RM 4.45, Rub 75.98, and Euro 1.0975

Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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