Athena Market Buzz

1230 10052023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday  


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened lower and by lunch active July month contracts was down -18 at RM 3789 which at the time of writing t his report is trading -39 at RM 3768. MPOB April demand and Supply suggested end stock down 10.54% at 1.49 min and with lower stocks , lower production and again increased export between 1-10 May we could see even higher draw down in end stocks by the end of this month. We can expect Malaysian stocks to go below 1.4 million MT and if the pace continues we won’t be surprised if stocks keep getting tighter. This would impart much needed support and will keep prices above RM 3150 for couple of months. Technically as mentioned before profit taking over RM 3750 is happening and traders could again make shorts if prices cross RM 3850 mark between RM 3850-4000 will become interesting shorts and can buy back these shorts the moment prices come back towards RM 3450-3250 range, for making longs one can wait for prices to even correct lower and chose a range of RM 3120-3250. CPO prices to India were offered at USD 1015 for May , 1010 for June and USD 965 for July. Once again July prices are close to CSFO offers and India will avoid making longs. Despite of lower stocks palm will fail to rally and rival oils are available cheaper and this will limit the rally beyond RM 4000 Mark. Crude oil on other hand is finding support but this is not due to increased consumption but US filling up reserves as Canadian supplies gets hampered  due to wild fire. 


In CBOT risk appetite is limited ahead of US CPI and debt ceiling data. USDA too will keep market on the watch specially for the production numbers and export from Brazil. Last night CBOT beans lost 1% in beans, 1% in Oil and over 1.75% down in meal after the news of much better pace of planting compared to historic numbers panicked traders. At the time of writing this report Bean oil is trading at 52.67- 37 for July and 52.42 -33 for Aug month. Board is again off from the highs and could drift towards 51.50 mark but basis on the other hand could find more support. Offers on Basis were -970 for May / June , -900 for July and AS  was at -880 . This resulted in slight correction on flat price (about -20) and CNF India the offers of bean oil in the morning were USD 1025 for MJ and USD 1020 for JA. Locally the sellers in bean oil are at INR 91,000/- with little excitement. Traders and investors in India are also scared to make longs over INR 900 mark and are buying only hand to mouth. We would suggest our readers not to worry too much as flat price bean oil should find immense support at USD 950 CNF India and every correction below USD 1000 mark will be excellent to make longs while the top side will attract selling when Prices in India hits INR 95,000 or in USD offers come around USD 1150. 


Black Sea grain corridor deal is being discussed between Russia and Ukraine on one hand and on other hand Russia escalated tensions on Victory Day. It may happen that grain corridor stops functioning by 18th may and it could push the destinations prices higher. Currently due to aggressive export from both the countries price of sunflower oil is cheapest compared to any other soft oil. India we heard some trades at USD 990 and also later at USD 980 CIF. Most of the destinations are full with stocks and with the current Macro issues this is a good problem to have. We would encourage our readers to take advantage of this situation and continue to keep buying their replacement demand. If the prices of sunflower oil correct below USD 950 then even forward months can be procured and one can increase over all longs. Locally in India the prices of sunflower oil is offered at INR 91,000/- and we have heard some trade. Prices of sunflower oil are finding support currently and may tend to increase if any thing changes on supply side. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May 23 -970/-1020
  • Jun 23 -970/-1010
  • Jul 23 -990/-1080
  • AS 23 -880/-1000
  • OND 23 -700/-850
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jun 23 -950/-1030
  • Jul 23  -950/-1080
  • AS-23 -900/-1050
  • OND-23 -700/-850
  • JF-24 –/-1000
  • Mch-24 –/-1150
  • 6 ports Europe JAS 995 v 980
  • OND 980 v 960
  • Palm Midday Market Close (Pre-MPOB)
  • Bmd : Jul 3789 (-18)
  • H 3800 / L 3752
  • Vol :  41,835
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 970 vs 
  • Jas 895 vs 885
  • Ond 875 vs 867.5 
  • Jfm 880 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Jun 910 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 792.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4100
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 240 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1015
  • Rbdpkoln: May 940
  • Rbdpks: May 1365
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5272 (unch)
  • Jul 5288 (-16)
  • Aug 5262 (-13)
  • Black sea sunflower oil FOB 850 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil  FOB 845 vs—
  • Spain indicated May/ June at USD 980 vs 950
  • Italy indicated May/ June at USD 970 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for 10 May-10 June shipment at USD 990 vs 960 buyers
  • Turkey CIf Izmir indications at USD 900 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.03, RM 4.45, Rub 77.88 and euro 1.09 

Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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