Athena Market Buzz

1400 02052023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened higher after a long break with the news of Malaysia exporting about 21% less compared to previous month which was already factored in prices. Fridays close was lowest for MDEX and todays jump compensate some of losses. At the time of lunch MDEX July was at RM 3393+55 and as expected we can see the correction to mildly continue till RM 3250 and only then we can see good buying support. Prices will find resistance at RM 3750 and any thing higher could be used to book profits. We will repeat that prices of RM 4000 and above should be used to make shorts and current levels can be either used to short cover or remain sidelined. One can make longs in Palm only when prices breach RM 3250 mark for active July contract. CNF India the prices for CPO is indicated at USD 990 but for July shipment we can see offers at USD 870 which is about USD 100 lower compared to other soft oils. Palm for forward months have corrected enough that we can see some demand and if the prices correct towards RM 3250 it will become excellent long. We should maintain that supports of RM 3125 can hold for the current month and possibility of it correcting lower will surface only if soft oil breaks crucial supports. 


Bean oil CBOT was very volatile last night and with the inflation data and interest rate revision round the corner we are seeing mixed reactions. CBOT settled marginally higher last night with July up 14 with 51.81 and Aug up 18 with 51.60. Both the months are touching previous lows of 51.50 and it appears that mostly current month CBOT could flirt around here and eventually it has a potential to break below 50.00. Supports of 47.50 could be tested in next 2 months and basis on the other hand could improve from current lows of -1100 to -500. Flat price bean oil which is currently below 900 could trade towards USD 850 and CNF India which is about USD 985 can trade as low as USD 920-925. We can expect that the correction in bean oil is now limited to last 5%. We can suggest our readers to start making longs in bean oil at current levels and scale up buying if the prices correct further. Locally in India we are not seeing any panic sellers any more, prices for Degum soybean oil are nearing INR 900 with buyers making their minds around INR 880.  


War continues and so are the logistical issues. 5 countries in Europe have agreed to put a ban on imports from Ukraine but will allow export to third destinations. Spain and Italy will continue to import Ukraine sunflower oil and this could keep much of the market under pressure. Ukraine has still a lot of oil to export and thus we can expect the pressure on prices to continue till end of next month. We expect the grain corridor to continue performing hence buyers to various destinations should look to keep sunflower oil long if its offered below bean oil prices. CNF India the offers for sunflower oil is between USD 1000-980 and we have heard some trades at USD 975 as well. Aggressive offers are from the afloat unsold suppliers who are still long April shipment and want to find a home for the same in India. We maintain that current prices are good to make near by longs and if prices correct below USD 900 for India then one can think of making longs for forward months as well. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May 23 -1050/-1140
  • Jun 23 -1060/-1140
  • Jul 23 -1060/-1150
  • AS 23 –/-1100
  • OND 23 –/-970
  • Brazil SBO
  • May 23 -1040/-1130
  • Jun 23 -1050/-1130
  • Jul 23  -1080/-1160
  • AS-23 -930/1050
  • OND-23 -800/-900
  • 6 ports Europe MJ 1005 vs 990
  • JAS 1010 vs 1000
  • OND 1000 vs 985
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3393 (+55)
  • H 3413 / L 3361
  • Vol :  18,271
  • Oln:  
  • May 975 (deld) vs 
  • Jun 880 vs 
  • Jas 817.5 vs 810
  • Ond 816 vs 807.5
  • Jfm 825 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 892.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 772.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4150
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 238 (pk) / 239 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 1000
  • Rbdpkoln: May 925
  • Rbdpks: May 1350
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5155 (unch)
  • Jul 5213 (+32)
  • Aug 5195 (+35)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 855 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 850 vs—
  • Spain indicated May at 970 vs—
  • Italy indicated May at 965 vs— 
  • CIF India indicated for May shipment at USD 980 vs 960
  • Turkey indicated May at 920 vs may 900 CIF Marmara
  • Currency INR 81.76, RM 4.45, Rub 80.38 and Euro 1.0986


Thanks and regards 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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