Athena Market Buzz

1500 28042023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Good Morning ,


Bearish factors continue to put pressure on all commodities Specially entire Agri complex. Mdex however is holding on current levels very well and lower stocks , increased DMO is helping the prices to remain stable. Palm opened lower but by lunch was mostly unchanged at RM 3455 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3450 -5.  India is riddled with cheap imports, strengthening rupee and demand from Industry to increase import duty. Yesterdays correction in Palm and bean oil could also be attributed to short sellers from India who expect some clarification by today evening on import duties as Monday will again be holiday. Palm  is slowly correcting to the levels of Rm 3250 which is where we can expect it to stabilise today but with duty rumour and current momentum we won’t be surprised if it attempts to break RM 3000 mark next week. CPO is very costly compared to other oils in India and it won’t make any sense for destinations likes India/ China and Middle East to make longs in palm. Crude oil too is coming down and with increased heat the usage in fuel will also be limited. 


Bean oil corrected as per our expectation and now July is -167 at 50.83 and Aug at 50.63 -161. CBOT correction has triggered a downward pull and if the market remains below 51.50 for both the months again today then we should technically be heading towards 47.50 support. Surprisingly basis on the other hand have not improved much pushing flat prices about USD 30 lower. Bean oil to India was offered at USD 965 against this buyers were looking for small volumes only around USD 920. We expect that most of the correction in bean oil has already happened and traders should start finding the current oil prices too cheap. With a limited downside one can start looking to make longs. Clearly current prices to destinations are already attractive and with erratic weather we can expect a rally soon. We expect that basis should start rally first and CBOT later should follow. Locally in India there is not much trade as market is still trying to clear the confusion around TRQ and a possible duty hike to protect local farmers. 


Sunflower oil from Ukraine was offered around USD 990 to India but buyers were looking to pay USD 950 or lower. Today though we have not received any offer but can expect the offers to come equal to bean oil around USD 965 for may. War continues to create issues but with west allowing some payment mechanism for Russian cargo we can expect Russians to allow grain corridor to work in return. Ukraine still has a lot of cargo to export and with their reduced possibility to sell in Europe they will continue to dump the produce to destinations likes India/ China and middle east. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May -1070 vs -1140
  • JJ -1070 vs -1150
  • AS ?? vs -1100
  • OND ? vs -950
  • Brazil SBO
  • MAY -1060 vs -1120
  • JUN  -1060 vs -1150
  • JUL   -1080 vs -1170
  • AS   ?? vs -1070
  • OND  -800   vs  -950
  • 6 ports Europe MJ 1005vs990
  • JAS 1010 vs 1000
  • OND 1000 vs 985
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3455 (unch)
  • H 3484 / L 3421
  • Vol :  49,980
  • Oln:  
  • May 980 vs 
  • Jun 900 vs 885
  • Jas 830 vs 825 trd 825
  • Ond 825 vs 815/17.5
  • Jfm 832.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 910 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 775 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4200
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 237 (pk) / 238 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May 995
  • Rbdpkoln: May 920
  • Rbdpks: May 1350
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5110 (+32)
  • Jul 5122 (+39)
  • Aug 5096 (+33)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7214 (-192)
  • Sep 6818 (-142)
  • Russian sunflower oil indicated May at 850 vs—
  • Ukraine sunflower oil indicated May 855 vs— 
  • Spain indicated May at USD 960 vs—
  • Italy indicated May at USD 955 vs —
  • CIF India indicated For may at USD 965 vs —
  • Turkey not offered at the moment
  • Currency INR 81.82, RM 4.45, Rub 80.10 and euro 1.0987


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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