Athena Market Buzz


1530 23042023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Good Morning ,


Mdex is closed today and will open only tomorrow. As mentioned before MDEX should find support at 3650 and would attempt to again test the range of RM 3850-3950 where the resistance of 4000 will keep the prices under pressure. Palm become buyable around RM 3450-3250 mark and could be sold for profit taking till RM 4000. We will repeat that prices over RM 4150-4250 should be used to make shorts. CPO prices are now at a premium to other soft oils and this is clear indication that if the availability of Palm gets reduced people will still have to consume it even at a premium to other oils. Usage of Palm is increasing in bio-fuels, its usage in speciality fats and sauces is also reducing the availability for frying hence the premium. Indonesia has so far not relaxed the export norms but we are expecting them to do it soon which could ease the current supply gap and may be reduce prices till RM 3250 for consumption to switch back to Palm. Last week Indian cancellations and settlement of palm contracts was in news but on the back side we can expect India to come back into buying the same contracts if prices correct and this will limit the correction to RM 3250. 


CBOT bean oil settled lower on Friday with July down -104 points at 53.57 and Aug down -101 at 53.22 which at the time of writing todays report is hanging there only. As mentioned before we expect CBOT to touch 52.50 and basis should improve keeping flat price more or less supported. Basis today were offered at -1100 for most of the positions and once market opens we can expect some improvement. CNF India the offers for bean oil were just over USD 1000 for MJJ and these levels are in fact very attractive for India to make longs. These prices are lower then April/MAY CPO and also lower compared to sunflower oil trades of USD 1010 to India last week. Bean oil should find a lot of support at current levels and with increased tension between Russia and Ukraine world could prefer more Soybean oil. Locally in India the prices of soybean oil are indicated at around 885-900 at ports and this will find resistance around INR 850.


Russia is threatening to stop the grain corridor once again and this time many warnings are issues to west. This could actually mean difficult transportation of cargo and could put stress on destination cities. In general price of USD 1000 India is already an attractive price but with dead line nearing we can expect more offload parcels being offered aggressively. India after trading USD 1010-1015 a couple of times last week is seeing offers again at USD 1010 but with limited buying. Excitement around the recovery of veg oil complex is fading away with bean oil showing no price jump. Sunflower oil which is at par with bean oil will find resistance , though the prices in general are lower but we will see Indians preferring soybean oil. New top planting is gaining pace in Ukraine and Russia, with Heat waves across the glob it will be hard to predict coming crop. We can safely assume that some solution to war will bring peace and clarity on prices pushing OND prices higher once again. We will not suggest our readers to make shorts on sunflower oil and maintain sufficient longs to tide supply disruptions. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May 23 -1080/-1130
  • Jun 23 -1100/-1180
  • Jul 23 -1100/-1200
  • AS 23 –/-1150
  • OND 23 –/-950
  • Brazil SBO
  • May 23 -1100/-1230
  • Jun 23 -1220/-1250
  • Jul 23  -1220/-1270
  • AS-23 –/1200
  • OND-23 –/-950
  • 6 ports Europe MJ      1055 vs -   
  • JAS     1065 vs 1030
  • OND   1055 vs 1020
  • Palm oil closed today 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 870 vs—
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 865 vs —
  • Spain indicated for May at 1000 vs —
  • Italy indicated for may at USD 995 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for May at USD 1010 vs —
  • CIF Mersin is offered May at USD 980-985
  • Currency INR 81.86, RM 4.43, Euro 1.10 and Rub 81.58




Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more