Athena Market Buzz

1250 20042023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 


Good morning,

The Mdex opened slightly lower and by midday was down to RM 3709 -26 in the month of July. As many market players are currently in holiday mode, we are not seeing aggressive participation. At the time of writing, Mdex is trading at RM 3700 -35, and it appears that it will attempt to reach RM 3650 today, where it should find support. Prior to the holiday, there is no reason for the market to collapse, but with the recent rally, small profit taking is expected. If prices correct below RM 3600, it will become attractive to make longs, and with limited participation, the upside can be capped at RM 3750. The market will reopen on Tuesday, and after the initial catching up, Mdex should follow a broad range, and we maintain that supports of RM 3250-3450 should remain intact, while the resistance of RM 4000 will largely be honored. Prices in the lower band will make a good case to make longs, and prices over RM 4000 will be worth going short.

Indians have settled a small volume of their imports in palm and are buying soft oil instead. Nearby palm prices are high and are trading at a premium to all soft oils. Hence, the contract cancellations, but come July and August, when there will not be enough sunflower oil and also eased bean oil pressure, prices of USD 900 and below for CPO can be a good long. CNF India today is offered for July and Aug at USD 945 and 935, respectively.

CBOT bean oil settled marginally lower, with July at 55.16 -37 and Aug at 54.79 -43, which, at the time of writing this report, is trading mostly unchanged. Basis too has corrected marginally, and now the sellers are asking for -1140 for MJ and -1180 for July bringing flat price a little lower. Degum is offered to India at USD 1025 for most positions and is mostly at par with sunflower oil offers. This price of degum is very attractive, and one must look to make longs if prices correct more. Prices have corrected from the top and are trading mostly in the safe zone. Longs made here have little room to correct lower, but on the upside, we can see a jump of almost USD 100 CNF India basis. We can expect prices in JJ to jump to 1100-1130 levels, with basis correcting to -500, and CBOT mostly holding tight around the 52.50 mark. Locally in India, DSBO is offered at INR 930-35 for May/June shipment, and buyers are trying to wait for prices to correct towards INR 910 levels. We suggest that buyers in India keep a close watch on USD - INR exchange, as it could trade in the highs of 82.70, making flat price India costly. We suggest our readers safely make longs at current prices and not panic over momentary corrections.

Ukraine has started sowing sun seed, and the size of the crop at the moment is anybody's guess. It is clear that with the majority of sun seed growing regions involved in active war, we can expect lower crops. Ukraine will have limited crop left to export from the current campaign, and with lower new crop production, we can expect higher prices. OND sunflower oil could trade at a large premium over soybean oil; hence, we would suggest our readers not become bearish if they see sunflower oil prices below bean oil price. FOB prices are finding resistance at the USD 760-780 mark, which means CNF India should remain well supported at the USD  900 mark. Currently India is offered at USD 1010-1020 and we heard some good trades yesterday. Locally sunflower oil is trading at INR 930 duty paid for Argentine origin in JNPT and Chennai is trading INR 950 duty paid for Russia or Ukraine origin. We expect duty paid prices in India to remain mostly supported and not correct below INR 85,000/- and top should find resistance around INR 110,000/- Current prices of INR 930-950 are well placed and should mostly move in the given 10% range till we see any major change in macro , weather or import policy. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • May 23 -1140/-1220
  • Jun 23 -1140/-1220
  • Jul 23 -1180/-1250
  • ASOND 23 –/-1200
  • Brazil SBO
  • May 23 -1150/-1230
  • MJJ 23 –/-1280
  • Jun 23 -1180/–
  • Jul 23  -1180/-1300
  • AS-23 -950/–
  • OND-23 –/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe MJ     1070 vs -
  • JAS    1080 vs 1020
  • OND  1070 vs 1000
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3709 (-26)
  • H 3773 / L 3671
  • Vol :  34,359
  • Oln:  
  • May 1005 vs 
  • Jun 947.5 vs 941 trd 945-941
  • Jas 887.5 vs 877.5
  • Ond 877.5 vs 870
  • Jfm 887.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 945 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 790 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4250
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 240 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May1000
  • Rbdpkoln: May 925
  • Rbdpks: May 1365
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5480 (-22)
  • Jul 5494 (-22)
  • Aug 5458 (-21)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7764 (-108)
  • Sep 7212 (-176)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 875 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 870 vs — 
  • Spain indicated May at 1000 vs—
  • Italy indicated may at 995 vs — 
  • India CIF Lw May Indicated at USD 1020 vs 1000
  • Turkey mersin offered at USD 965 vs 940 buyers
  • Currency INR 82.14, RM 4.43, rub 81.74 and Euro 1.0956



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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