Athena Market Buzz

1540 18042023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 


Good Morning , 


Palm is very active today as it opened again 1.65% higher for July at RM 3698+60 which by lunch time had rallied in triple digits to settle at RM 3759+121. Technically we had mentioned that the market will attempt to touch RM 3750 mark and fundamentally the market got fuelled with much lower Indonesian stocks. Over all Malaysian stocks are declining and it was expected that since Indonesia is not exporting as much we should see stock build up but on the contrary the stocks in Indonesia are 14.84% lower than previous month and with China increasing its purchase we expect the same to come down lower. Malaysian exchange will remain on holiday for Ramadan and there won’t be any direction from palm to other markets hence we can see some downward correction in flat prices. We will repeat that palm is in a range bound market and it will find resistance over RM 3750 and supports immediately is at RM 3450. One should sell MDEX and book profit on longs if prices move towards RM 4000 and can go short only when prices cross RM 4150 mark.  CPO to India was offered for June at USD 1000 against this sunflower oil was also available around the same price. 


CBOT bean oil settled higher with July 54.70 +93 and Aug 54.40 +82 on the back of Ukraine grain corridors possibility of getting closed. Palm strength is also pushing the prices for bean oil higher. CNF India the offers for Palm is almost at par with bean oil and hence we are seeing good business in bean oil. We maintain that flat price bean oil is good to go long between USD 1000-1050 and there is not much room for correction. Board which we expected to correct till 52.50 is holding on very well but basis is currently being traded around -1100 mark. Locally in India May shipment bean oil traded a few times at USD 1045-1048 and in INR we traded between 940-945. 


Ukraine is getting caught in war now with a possible end to grain corridor arrangement it has only Europe as destination market and most of the European countries are already struggling with cheap imports. Europe is divided as the elections in Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria is pushing them to ban agri imports from Ukraine in order to support their local farmers which could result in Ukraine selling their produce to other destinations even more aggressively. India the offers for sunflower oil were between USD 1020-1030 about USD 10/20 cheaper to bean oil and locally sunflower oil was getting traded at INR 920 duty paid for ready lifting. Mr Putin has made surprised visit to Kherson which is a rare from the leader however this confirms that Russia will not be easing out on war soon unless their demands are met. We would suggest our readers to maintain long in sunflower oil as the prices risk on the down side is about USD 50 max. Supports of USD 900 on the down side should remain intact and on the upside we could once again see sunflower oil trading over USD 1250 by June 2023.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr 23 -1080/-1170
  • May 23 -1100/-1180
  • JJ 23 -1100/-1200
  • ASOND 23 –/-1200
  • Brazil SBO
  • May 23 -1070/-1130
  • Jun 23 -1130/-1160
  • Jul 23  -1130/-1200
  • AS-23 -850/-1200
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ  1050 vs -
  • JAS   1060 vs -
  • OND 1060 vs 
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3787 (+149)
  • H 3810 / L 3631
  • Vol :  81,777
  • Oln:  
  • May 1025 vs 
  • Jun 960 vs 
  • Jas 902.5 vs 895 trd 885-900
  • Ond 890 vs 882.5 trd 875
  • Jfm 900 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 960 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 825 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4250
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 242 (pk) / 244 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May1010
  • Rbdpkoln: May 935
  • Rbdpks: May 1375
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5519 (+62)
  • Jul 5535 (+65)
  • Aug 5506 (+66)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7856 (+210)
  • Sep 7360 (+240)
  • Black sea sunflower oil FOB May 885 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil  FOB May 880 vs—
  • Spain indicated for may at USD 1000 vs—
  • Italy indicated for May at USD 900 vs—
  • CIF Lw India offered for May at USD 1025 vs 1000
  • Turkey indicated at USD 990 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.01, RM 4.43, Rub 81.53, and Euro 1.0975




Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more