Athena Market Buzz

 1600 17042023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 


Good Morning ,

Mdex opened 1% higher in the morning despite of rumours of slower export from Malaysia and by lunch the market was 2% up with July trading at Rm 3630+64 and at the time of writing this report July is still trading at Rm 3635 +69 and it appears that it will make efforts to cross RM 3750 level soon. Weather and heat wave is major concern for the crop and it appears that temperature could hit over 35 deg resulting in lesser yield in coming months. CPO for near by month is costly but price for July and Aug are relatively cheap which will push the traders to make longs there. As mentioned before prices between RM 3450-3250 should be used make longs and these longs can be sold back for profit booking between RM 3750-4000 levels, one should however wait for prices to cross RM 4150 to make shorts. Over all edible oil market is well balanced and we don’t see any more panic selling which should typically help the bulls. Brent is finding support around 85 and it appears that if tensions increase there is a chance that it could test 95. On the upside the resistance will kick around RM 4150-4250 as Indonesia will open export and profit taking will also limit the gains. Export number by Private cargo surveyor 1-15 Apr23’ export

AmSpec:  497,353mt (-33.73%)

ITS: 535,905mt ( -28.72%)


CBOT Bean oil settled marginally lower on Friday with July down 6 at 53.77 and Aug down 4 at 53.58. At the time of writing this report CBOT is up 33 points for May July and Aug. India priced decent volumes of soybean oil for may shipment between USD 1013-1028 CNF JNPT however locally the buyers in INR were reluctant and will only come post lunch. As mentioned before prices between 1000-1050 for Degum soybean oil is very attractive and one should not hesitate to make longs here. Hinterland India is facing extreme heat waves and reduced consumption of veg oils, resulting in lower Soybean seed prices but lesser crush. Degum to India is offered at USD 1025 at the moment and we expect some more trades in current prices. CBOT has little more room to correct and we expect it to touch 52.50 soon but while doing so the basis will improve which may still keep the flat price unchanged.


Ukraine is again pushing to export more cargo as Russia threatens not to extend the grain corridor. Russia has given some terms to the west in order for grain corridor to work and most likely this time it appears that Russia will not extend cooperation. We are suggesting our readers to keep the spot cargo well stocked and not to panic and sell. Indian market traded may shipment a couple of times at USD 1000 and today the offers are slightly higher at 1025. Ukraine has started sowing new crop sun seeds and are lacking in pace of planting. Heat wave, slow pace of planting , erratic weather may result in much lower crop and we can expect sunflower oil to again start commanding premium over other oils by this November 2023. Indians are yet to cover for June about 200k may get traded in to India, Egypt too is coming up with a tender for 10,000 mt of sunflower oil to be shipped to them between end may early June, Middle East will also come back post Ramadan adding to May demand. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr-23 -1000/-1130
  • ASOND-23 -/-1150
  • Brazil SBO
  • May -1050 vs -1120
  • Jun -1050 vs -1160
  • Jul -1070 vs -1180
  • AS-23 -/-1250
  • OND-23 –/-1190
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ  1020 vs —
  • JAS   1025 vs 
  • OND 1020 vs 970
  • JFM   1040 vs 970
  • Palm oil Market Close
  • Bmd : Jul 3636 (+70)
  • H 3652 / L 3567
  • Vol :  51,471
  • Oln:  
  • May 990 vs 
  • Jun 930 vs 922.5 trd 925
  • Jas 870 vs 862.5 trd 865
  • Ond 862.5 vs 855
  • Jfm 870 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 930 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 795 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: May 4250
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: May 240 (pk) / 242 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: May1010
  • Rbdpkoln: May 935
  • Rbdpks: May 1375
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5407 (+41)
  • Jul 5417 (+40)
  • Aug 5396 (+38)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7656 (-34)
  • Sep 7156 (+30)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May FOB 885 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil May 880 vs —
  • Spain offered May at 1000 vs —
  • Italy indicated May at 995 vs—
  • CIF India indicative prices for May 1025 vs -
  • Turkey no offered at the moment
  • Currency INR 81.94, RM 4.42, Rub 80.76, and Euro 1,098





Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more