Athena Market Buzz

1400 12042023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened slightly higher but later succumbed to selling pressure and by lunch we were already down -58 at RM 3830 and at the time of writing this report we are trading -104 at RM 3784. As expected we could see a lot of selling pressure and profit booking which may push the palm markets to break the RM 3750 support and once broken we can expect it to trade lower. The demand in India is totally muted as the prices of palm are in line with other soft oils. CPO trades well if its at a USD 150-200 discount to soft oils and HORECA in India consumes it as a cheaper oil, once it starts attracting premium the usage limits to speciality fat resulting in decrease in over all consumption, building stocks at origin and destination and then pressure on MDEX. Indonesia is expected to come out and start exporting palm oil early may which could ease the current stress on Malaysia and also should result in price correction. We will repeat that price of RM 3450-3250 should be used to make longs with a stop loss at RM 3250 and prices of RM 3750-4000 should be used to liquidate longs while shorts can be made between RM 4150-4250 levels. CNF India the offers for palm is between USD 1020-1025 for may and 980 for June with no demand.


Bean oil showed little change after USDA and settled marginally up at 55.01 +28 for July which at the time of writing this report is trading at 54.40-61. USDA came out with a surprise reduction in Argentina crop but Brazil appears to be healthy. Most of the information was already priced in hence we have not seen any dramatic moves on CBOT. We expect CBOT to correct more and first test the 52.50 support and later has a potential to slip further even below 50.00 while on the other hand basis should max out at -1400 and recover back to -400-500 levels as the CBOT corrects. Flat price India is offered for MJJ at USD 1035 and as mentioned before these prices are actually attractive when compared to all other oils. One can expect the prices to correct about USD 50 more and has a potential to bounce back up. Sunflower oil prices are finding support and with increased tension and a break in grain corridor we may see renewed interest in bean oil. Locally in India degum is still offered for may at INR 935 and we have seen some good trades yesterday as well as today. 


Ukraine faced issues in passing the grain corridors as Russian inspectors remained absent on 11th April. We are hearing the same is happening today as well and the vessels are not allowed to pass. Last inspected vessels were loaded in Ukraine on 2nd of April and current vessels await inspection. War is entering a tough phase with west now calling for peace and Mr Putin asking for new world order. On sunflower oil side the sellers are more aggressive and offers to India are at indicative of USD 1035 russian origin and USD 1045 for Ukraine origin. Indians can wait a little as there is already a stock buildup and a delay in custom clearance of cargo under TRQ. Prices below USD 1000 will again trade for India and we suggest our refiners to maintain their longs. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr 23 –/-1000
  • May 23 -1100/-1230
  • Jun 23 –/-1250
  • Jul 23  –/-1280
  • AS 23 –/-1270
  • OND 23 –/-1190
  • Brazil SBO
  • May 23 -1150/-1250
  • Jun 23 -1170/-1270
  • Jul 23  -1180/-1280
  • AS-23 -750/-1270
  • OND-23 -700/-1190
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ  1040 vs 1000
  • JAS   1050 vs 1010
  • OND  1040 vs 1010
  • JFM   1045 vs 1010
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close
  • Bmd : Jun 3830 (-58)
  • H 3909 / L 3792
  • Vol :  43,221
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 1020 vs
  • May 990 vs 
  • Jun 940 vs 
  • Jas 885 vs 877.5
  • Ond 872.5 vs 862.5
  • Jfm 875 vs 865
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: May 940 (deld) 
  • Pfad: May 762.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4300
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 240 (pk) / 241 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1010
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 930
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1365
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5462 (-27)
  • Jul 5474 (-27)
  • Aug 5461 (-15)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7760 (-42)
  • Sep 7234 (-42)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May offered at USD 890 vs—
  • Russian sunflower oil May indicated at USD 890 vs —
  • Spain indicated May at 1030 vs —
  • Italy indicated May at 1025 vs —
  • CIF India offered Russian origin at USD 1035 and Ukraine at USD 1045 vs —
  • Turkey offered Mersin at 1020 vs 980
  • Currency INR 82.02, RM 4.40, Rub 82.18 and euro 1.0933



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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