Athena Market Buzz

1330 10042023 Athena Market Buzz Monday  


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened marginally lower and by lunch we were down -4 for June at RM 3790. Exports from Malaysia have jumped and stocks also disappeared more than expected however Chinese exchanged correction weighed in sentiments and post lunch we saw profit taking. At the time of writing this report we are trading June at RM 3753 -41 and we expect that the correction will continue. India is reporting a rise in covid cases and we will have to see how the summer plays out and what will be the total impact on consumption. Indonesia too will open exports end of the April month post ramadan which should result in higher availability of oils. We maintain our view that the prices of RM 3850-4000 should be used for profit taking and anything higher can be used to make shorts. Prices of RM 3450 and lower are good to go long with a stop loss at RM 3250. CPO prices for India were indicated at USD 1020 for may and USD 975 for June with little buying interest. Mostly this week prices should maintain a range of RM 3650 -3950 and we can expect some demand one prices correct. 


CBOT soybean oil was closed due to good friday and traders will only return today. Mostly we maintain our view that CBOT should correct a little more and test 52.50 for July month while basis should improve from -1100 to roughly around -800 or lower. This should keep flat price slightly supportive and we can find good consumer demand. MJJ offers for India are indicated at USD 1060-65 and these levels are already attractive to make longs. Locally in India we are seeing MJJ sellers asking for INR 960 duty paid prices against buyers at INR 935-940 with little trades. With less exports of meal we are seeing a slowing of crushing in beans which should result in higher veg oil demand. Currently the stocks are limited and this would push local markets higher. Rape seeds arrivals are increasing thus pushing the prices down and this may result in a pressure on soybean seeds as well however we don’t see soybean oil prices correcting too much as its already attractive. 


Ukraine saw Russians using hypersonic missiles and Russians claim to have destroyed fuel depots and important military assets in east Ukraine. Russia strategically capturing the Industrial east Ukraine and this will continue for some more months. It appears that the export of cargo will continue from Ukraine and exporters are finding some support at current prices. We understand that CIF Marmara traded at USD 980 last week for Russian origin cargo and India was rumoured to have traded a few times at USD 1020. India between April 2022-March 2023 financial year imported about 2.06 million MT  of sunflower oil and this year Athena expects India to consume 2.6 million MT of sunflower oil with average monthly consumption of just over 210 K. Russian share in sunflower oil is increasing and it appears that this year too will be no different. Prices for sunflower oil should find very good support at USD 900 CIF India and on the top side the resistance should kick in around USD 1250. Mostly we have seen revival of sentiments and sunflower oil having jumped to 1070 CIF India is finding some resistance and is being offered at USD 1025 for various positions. We will request our readers to continue to make longs as once the correction is over we can expect sunflower oil to make news highs. Locally in India there is some issues with custom clearing of cargo under TRQ. We can expect some bridge demand for duty paid cargo and slightly lower import volumes for April shipment. 


  • Argentina SBO (Thus close)
  • Apr 23 -1000/-1200
  • May 23 -1080/-1280
  • MJJ 23 -1100/-1300
  • AS 23 –/-1200
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr 23 -850/–
  • May 23 -1100/-1290
  • Jun 23 -1070/-1290
  • Jul 23  -1100/-1300
  • AS-23 -800/-1240
  • OND-23 -750/-1160
  • 6 ports Europe indicative as most of the place still on holiday  AMJ   1075 vs -
  • JAS    1085 vs -
  • OND  1075 vs 
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close (Pre MPOB)
  • Bmd : Jun 3790 (-4)
  • H 3808 / L 3735
  • Vol :  25,822
  • Oln:  
  • Apr (pk) 1015 
  • May 985 vs 
  • Jun 940 vs   
  • Jas 882.5 vs 875
  • Ond 872.5 vs 860
  • Jfm 877.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Apr 930 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 772.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4250
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 238 (pk) / 240 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1005
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 925
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1360
  • Sbo : 
  • May 5465 (+12)
  • Jul 5483 (+10)
  • Aug 5458 (+9)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7634 (-110)
  • Sep 7250 (-76)
  • Black sea sunflower oil 885 vs—
  • Russian sunflower oil 880 vs—
  • Spain indicated for May at USD 1020 vs—
  • Italy indicated for May at USD 1015 vs -
  • CIF Lw India indications for May at 1030 vs —
  • Turkey indicated at USD 1000 vs —
  • Currency INR 81.86, Rub 81.56, RM 4.40 and Euro 1.091



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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