Athena Market Buzz

1530 03042023 Athena Market Buzz Monday


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened firm with July trading initially at RM 3782 +106 and remained mostly firm during the day. By lunch the market settled a little and July was trading RM 3762 +86 and all the positions from April to June were already trading well over RM 3750 mark, at the time of writing this report active month June is trading at RM 3886 +125 up 3.32% and July is trading at RM 3795 +119 up 3.24%. CNF India offers for CPO for April were at USD 1050, May 1020 and June 990. These prices of CPO are mostly in line with sunflower oil offers at least for near by and we will still not see much business. Its clear that the resistance for MDEX should kick in around RM 4000 mark and the price range of RM 3750-4000 should be used to book profit , while one can start going short if the prices move any higher. For making longs one can again look at prices to come in the range of RM 3450-3550 with a stop loss at RM 3250. 


CBOT bean oil settled on Friday May at 55.49 +112 and July at 55.62+105 which at the time of writing this report is trading at 56.51+102 and 56.66 +104 respectively. We had expected the CBOT to correct lower and trade towards 51.50 with basis improving keeping flat price more or less unchanged but the reverse has happened. Board has firmed up and basis on other hand has lost the ground for MJJ. Today the basis is offered at -1030 for MJJ which was earlier -800 in the week and with current 56.65 CBOT we get FOB levels of USD 1020-1021 for MJJ. CNF India the offers for bean oil indicatively are April 1035, May 1110, June 1108/ July 1108. We do maintain that levels between USD 1100-1150 for MJJ bean oil are excellent to make longs and one should continue price the same. We do expect that board may correct back to 52.50 and basis can improve again towards -500 but the flat price may trade even higher. Over all bean oil is well supported for MJJ at USD 1100 CNF India and is finding competition currently with only sunflower oil which is being indicated at USD 1050 for most of the months. 


Europe is preparing for easter holidays and we see less aggressive sellers in sunflower oil. Even rape seed oil Europe has improved from USD 890 to prices of over USD 1010 and Sunflower oil from Ukraine is being indicated to most of the European buyers at USD 1020 currently. Grain corridor is a question mark, MNCs like Vittera , Cargill may stop operating in Russia post 1st July could hint complete stoppage of transport and this could mean that all the current prices on sunflower oil is good ownership. India is entering new financial year and most of the traders after losing money last year expects to make it back this year by owning the current prices. As mentioned before sunflower oil between USD 950-1000 CIF India is excellent ownership where downside is limited and upside we could once again go to USD 1350 mark. Locally in india we have seen good trades for cargo delivery upto May 2023 at prices of INR 97,000/- +gst. We will suggest our readers to continue to make longs here and not panic in correction. 



  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr 23 -820/-1000
  • MJJ 23 -1030/-1250
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr 23 -850/-950
  • May 23 -980/-1250
  • Jun 23 -1000/-1270
  • Jul 23  -1030/-1300
  • AS-23 -750/–
  • OND-23 -750/–
  • 6 ports Europe seller JAS 1100 vs—
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3858 (+97)
  • H 3888 / L 3805
  • Vol :  17,772
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 1030 (deld) vs
  • May 985 vs 
  • Jun 955 vs 
  • Jas 905 vs 890
  • Ond 890 vs 875
  • Jfm 895 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Apr 945 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 770 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4250
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 243 (pk) / 245 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1025
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 945
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1380
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5655 (+106)
  • Jul 5664 (+102)
  • Aug 5624 (+100)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7736 (+118)
  • Sep 7374 (+88)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May FOB 850 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil May FOB 845 vs—
  • Spain indicated May at USD 1020 vs—
  • Italy indicated may at USD 1015 vs —
  • CIF Lw India offered for May at USD 1050 vs —, small afloat can still be traded at USD 1020 vs—
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.30, RM 4.417, Rub 77.52 and Euro 1.0790







Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more