Athena Market Buzz

1530 29032023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 

Good Morning, 


Mdex opened slightly higher but as the day progressed by lunch time we saw profit taking and June month settled 3672 -15 after making a days low at RM 3646 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3714 +27. As mentioned before the CPO prices into India are very costly and it will be hard for palm to trade at current levels. Some indications on CPO were starting at 990 and ROL at 980 against this crude sunflower oil India traded last night at 1020 which today is offered around USD 1030 again. Palm has bounced off from our supports of RM 3450 and is trying to test resistance of RM 3750 again. We can expect palm to peak for short term around RM 4000 but will correct back to RM 3250 and this range could continue trading till end of Aug 2023. MDEX will become worth selling once it crosses RM 3750 mark , at this level one can exit longs again and to make short one should look at levels of RM 4000. 


Cbot bean oil settled higher last night with July up 47 at 55.12 and Aug up 36 at 54.64, which at the time of writing this report July is trading at 54.91-21 and Aug at 54.61 -3. Once again the weather issues in US are driving the market and on other hand Brazil crop forecast is cut from 155 to 150. CBOT soybeans should technically find support at 1425 for July and Soybean oil I well supported at 52.50.  With macro picture still indicting some turmoil and Fed most likely increase further interest rate we are not very bullish CBOT and we expect it to find resistance to cross 57.50 mark. Basis are holding well around -950 on the sell side making Flat price FOB just around USD 1000 and India for near by is offered at USD 1100 with little demand. Locally in India degum is still offered around INR 950 with some trades however most of the buyers currently are preferring sunflower oil which is about USD 100 lower to bean oil for various positions. 



Black Sea Ukraine sunflower oil stabilised and bounced back from the low. We saw India trading CIF 950 last week and then it jumped to traded USD 1020 yesterday which today is being offered at USD 1030 for AM. Ukraine continues to fight for their survival and it appears that this time the grain corridor may not be extended hence the aggressive prices. Today sunflower oil is the cheapest oil and its no brainer for any one to own it. We would strongly recommend destinations to continue covering sunflower oil and not go short in current prices. India saw good business in sunflower oil between USD 950-1000 levels and in INR between 900-940 for spot cargo, Today there are not may sellers for 31st March BL and even less for spot cargo making supply side slightly tight. War is taking an ugly turn with more and more talks about nuclear plant at zaprozihiya and possible deployment of nuclear capable missiles at Belarussia. This added to chaos and uncertainty resulting in more selling pressure in agri commodities. Some how we feel that current levels of sunflower oil are one of the lows and it will be tough to break USD 900 CIF India mark, as downside looks very limited. 



  • APR -830/-980 1031-998 +11   
  • MJJ -950/-1050 1005-983 +4
  • AS NS/-980 NS-983 
  • OND NS/-920 ?-974
  • BRZ SOYOIL:
  • APR -800/-1020 1214-989
  • MAY -910/NB 1003-NB +9
  • JUN -930/-1100 1010-973 +8  
  • JUL -980/-1180 999-977 +4
  • 6 ports Europe Apr   990 vs 950
  • AMJ   995 vs 950
  • JAS   1005 vs 960
  • OND 1005 vs 960
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3672 (-15)
  • H 3723 / L 3664
  • Vol :  19,194
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 975 (pk) vs
  • Apr 990 (dld pg)
  • May 945 vs 
  • Jun 915 vs
  • Jas 872.5 vs 867.5 trd 872.5
  • Ond 867.5 vs 860 
  • Jfm 875 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Apr 922.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 750 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Apr 4150
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 240 (pk) / 243 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1020
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 940
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1370
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5471 (-34)
  • Jul 5483 (-29)
  • Aug 5441 (-23)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7516 (+92)
  • Sep 7204 (+68)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil May 820 Vs —
  • Russia sunflower oil May 810 vs —
  • Spain indicated May 980 vs 940
  • Italy indicated May 975 vs —
  • CIF India indicated May at 1030 vs —
  • Turkey we see buyers at 910 but no sellers 
  • Currency INR 82.33, RM 4.40 , Euro 1.0858 and Rub 76.94




Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz

  1430 08072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY HBDAARI Palm Oil Market : The palm oil market is very slow today in India as MDEX is closed and traders are not getting any direction. Such days are important as most of the consolidation happens during a holiday, followed by short covering on the opening day. Our view remains unchanged: as the market progresses towards RM 4150 and above, we advise our traders to start making small shorts, increasing them once we test RM 4450, while buying during corrections towards RM 3750. Production is decreasing, India is entering the festive season, and demand for edible vegetable oil is increasing, which will provide enough support. Bearish traders are looking at crude oil prices, hoping that softer crude could put pressure on vegetable oil, but we expect crude to remain stable and slowly inch higher towards 100 by the end of this year when the requirement for heating oil increases. In India, offers are mostly unchanged from Friday, and there are n...
Read more

ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1600 10062024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY Good Morning, Congratulations to Team India for their victory against Pakistan in the ICC T-20 World Cup, and to the people of India for reelecting Shri Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. MDEX opened lower, and by lunchtime, August settled at RM 3952, down 23 points. At the time of writing, August has further declined to RM 3926, down 49 points. With it being Monday, we expect the slow trade to continue, overlooking the weakness in bean oil and increased stock figures. MPOB data shows opening stocks at 1.74 million MT, with production up by 13.48% and end stocks up by 0.5%. Despite the good discount of palm oil over other soft oils, traders expected higher export numbers, leading to the sell-off. The pace of export is good, and we can expect stock reduction by the end of the month, which will adjust the market higher. The RSI in MDEX is just over 50%, keeping the view mostly neutral, and we can expect some more selling pressure as the day progresses....
Read more