Athena Market Buzz

1310 22032023 Athena Market Buzz wednesday

Good Morning and a very Happy Gudi Padwa and Hindu new year to every one. 


Mdex as expected opened lowed and was pushed to days low by lunch time. June settled RM 3644 -140 and we expect small short covering could result in a mild bounce however we maintain that the price to go long should be between RM 3450-3550 with a stop loss at RM 3250. Palm is very expensive at the moment and with CNF India prices of CPO April 980 and May 970 we will find it hard for people to trade. Sunflower oil and Rape seed oil Europe are very cheap in fact we heard some offers to India in the range of USD 1010 for May shipment reducing the spread between palm and sun to historic lows. Palm will also enter into high production months, with reduced exports, lack of demand from India and higher production in coming months palm will slip and this should being back healthy spread between softs and palm. ROL india is offered at USD 930 for may and it will become buyable if the prices come below 900. Part of India is closed today but we have heard some CPO pricing for spot cargo, we would suggest our readers to maintain short or at least keep their longs hedged. 


Cbot bean oil finally decided to correct as may settled 56.35 -175 and July at 56.35 -159. We repeat that CBOT most likely should touch 54.50 and the range between 54.50-52.50 will become buy for MJJ months. Basis on the other hand didn’t change much and the offers for MJJ continued at -920. News about bumper Brazilian crop, Cheaper Rape oil in Europe and Very Cheap sunflower oil in Black Sea pushed the bean oil prices also lower. CNF India the offers are at 1110 for MJJ and these prices are about USD 100 premium over sunflower oil. Funds have added to their net short position and it appears that now CBOT bean oil could break the 50 mark and attempt to go towards 45.0. We are suggesting at price range of 54.50-52.50 for pricing part of requirements for MJJ as if the FED starts reducing interest rates we will once again see more liquidity which could result in a jump on board. CNF India we adjusted our long levels for MJJ from 1100 to a range of USD 1000-1050 mark. Soybean oil will have to fight with other soft oils for its market share in destinations like India and China and its only matter of time when we see prices correcting on Board, basis on the other hand can appreciate a little hence if some one needs oil they can start making longs on MJJ basis. 


6 ports Europe Sunflower oil offered at USD 1000, India offered at 1030 to do lower, Turkey indicated below USD 1000 and FOB Ukraine around USD 900 . These are 2 years lowest levels and about USD 100 lower to even current sunflower oil offers. Ukraine is exporting its abundant agri reserves to make most of the current situation. Sunflower seed prices are lower which effectively leaves room for prices to come down further. India is gradually consuming sunflower oil stock and soon we would have consumed all the high price cargo. Recently we saw some trades for April and May shipment and with the consumption on sunflower oil increasing we will see further demand for may shipment. Current levels of sunflower oil are already attractive and we would suggest our readers to price at least 50% of their needs and balance when the price correct more. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr-23 -850/-980
  • MJJ-23 -910/-1030
  • ASOND-23 –/-800
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr-23 –/-1000
  • May-23 -800/–
  • MJJ-23  -900/–
  • July-23  –/-1000
  • AS-23 -650/-800
  • OND-23 –/-730
  • 6 ports Europe AMJ  1000 vs -
  • JAS 1000 vs -
  • OND  995  vs -
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3644 (-140)
  • H 3811 / L 3634
  • Vol :  54,298
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 935
  • May 910 vs
  • Jun 900 vs
  • Jas 852.5 vs 847.5 trd 857.5-852.5
  • Ond 852.5 vs 840
  • Jfm 857.5 vs
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Apr 887.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 695 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4050
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 240 (pk) / 243 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1025
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 945
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1375
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5579 (-45)
  • Jul 5589 (-46)
  • Aug 5543 (-42)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7326 (-332)
  • Sep 7158 (-278)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 900 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indicative 900 vs—
  • Spain indicated for May at 1000 vs —
  • Italy indicated for May at 1000 vs—
  • CIF Lw India indicated for May at USD 1020 vs —
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.66, RM 4.46, Euro 1.0764 and Rub 77.26


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz

  1430 08072024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY HBDAARI Palm Oil Market : The palm oil market is very slow today in India as MDEX is closed and traders are not getting any direction. Such days are important as most of the consolidation happens during a holiday, followed by short covering on the opening day. Our view remains unchanged: as the market progresses towards RM 4150 and above, we advise our traders to start making small shorts, increasing them once we test RM 4450, while buying during corrections towards RM 3750. Production is decreasing, India is entering the festive season, and demand for edible vegetable oil is increasing, which will provide enough support. Bearish traders are looking at crude oil prices, hoping that softer crude could put pressure on vegetable oil, but we expect crude to remain stable and slowly inch higher towards 100 by the end of this year when the requirement for heating oil increases. In India, offers are mostly unchanged from Friday, and there are n...
Read more

ATHENA MARKET BUZZ

1600 10062024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ MONDAY Good Morning, Congratulations to Team India for their victory against Pakistan in the ICC T-20 World Cup, and to the people of India for reelecting Shri Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. MDEX opened lower, and by lunchtime, August settled at RM 3952, down 23 points. At the time of writing, August has further declined to RM 3926, down 49 points. With it being Monday, we expect the slow trade to continue, overlooking the weakness in bean oil and increased stock figures. MPOB data shows opening stocks at 1.74 million MT, with production up by 13.48% and end stocks up by 0.5%. Despite the good discount of palm oil over other soft oils, traders expected higher export numbers, leading to the sell-off. The pace of export is good, and we can expect stock reduction by the end of the month, which will adjust the market higher. The RSI in MDEX is just over 50%, keeping the view mostly neutral, and we can expect some more selling pressure as the day progresses....
Read more