Athena Market Buzz

1330 20032023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 

Good Morning,


Mdex open 0.8% lower and by lunch we are already over 1.5% down with May at Rm 3932 -55 and June at RM 3860 -60, and at the time of writing this report we are touching the days low for June at RM 3835-85 or -2.14%. Palm markets are over doing and holding on to the price despite of no major factor. Demand at destinations like India and China is muted, supply is sufficient which should have pushed the prices already to Rm 3750. We expect the market to test RM 3750 soon and only once it breaks those levels it will become a good buy. We maintain that prices between RM 3450-3550 will be worth making longs with a stop loss at RM 3250 and if the prices manage to touch Rm 4000 again one should exit the longs. India is getting cheaper sunflower oil, Soybean oil, local Rape seed oil and also competition from cottonseed and rice bran would fragment the consumption and erratic weather is also not helping the bulls. CNF India CPO is being indicated between 980-965 and ROL between USD 975-965 which we expect should correct at least USD 100 by end of April. Levels of USD 850-900 will be interesting levels to make long ROL for India till then we would suggest our readers to maintain distance and keep their longs completely hedged. 


CBOT Bean oil settled marginally lower on Friday with May at 57.46 -27 and July at 57.48 -27 which at the time of writing this report is trading down 2% for May at 56.32 -116, July at 56.36 -112. We expect bean oil to continue correcting till 54.50 mark and it will become a buy only when the price range comes between 52.50-54.50 with a stop loss at 51.25. Current financial markets are not healthy and hence funds would continue to invest in GOLD, Silver avoiding crude oil and other commodities. Food is essential commodity hence we don’t see it going below crucial support of 52.50. On other hand erratic weather , short supply of bean oil would impart the support but will face competition from constantly falling sunflower oil. Locally in India soybeans are almost 30% below their last years level  and chance are such that it may correct another 20%. Rapeseed which is trading around 5700 is about 21% lower to last years levels and it will have to correct another 10% just to complete with soybeans. Soft oil are under pressure and CNF India offers for bean oil for MJJ are at 1135. As mentioned before we expected these levels are good levels to go long but with falling sunflower oil we would request our readers to wait till price come between 1000-1050 mark. ECB is expected to hike the interest rates again which can again push the prices lower hence we would suggest our readers to keep the positions hedged. 



Ukraine is getting desperate to export and today the offers for sunflower oil to India for April are already below USD 1100. Russia extended the grain corridor deal for another 120 days and it appears that exports can continue without any issue even afterwards. Chinese president will visit Moscow today and it will be interesting to see how can he impact the ongoing conflict. India is already having too much of stock and with aggressive offers it will create additional pressure on the prices of local oil seeds. Indian government at the moment is not keen to put additional duties and on other hand ECB is not keen to reduce interest rates. We would suggest our readers to maintain long in sunflower oil as with the pace of exports soon Ukraine will run out of oil. Price for sunflower oil could trade higher come MJJ and with every correction one should own the oil. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Apr-23 -820/-950
  • MJJ-23 -880/-950
  • ASOND-23 –/-800
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr-23 -800/-850
  • May-23 -820/-950
  • JJ-23  -820/-950
  • AS-23 –/-800
  • 6 ports Europe APR   1020 vs 995
  • AMJ  1020 vs 1000
  • JAS    1020 vs 1015
  • OND 1020 vs 1000
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3860 (-60)
  • H 3906 / L 3850
  • Vol :  20,389
  • Oln:  
  • Apr (pg) 960 vs
  • Mj 940 vs
  • Jas 900 vs 890
  • Ond 895 vs 
  • Jfm 902.5 vs
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Apr 930 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 727.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4150
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Apr 245 (pk) / 246 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Apr 1035
  • Rbdpkoln: Apr 955
  • Rbdpks: Apr 1385
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5692 (-54)
  • Jul 5692 (-56)
  • Aug 5642 (-52)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7698 (-86)
  • Sep 7482 (-50)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 950 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 950 vs —
  • Spain Indicated at April 1070 vs —
  • Italy indicated at April 1065 vs —
  • CIF India April offered at USD 1080 vs 1050 indicative buyers
  • Turkey offered Mersin April at 1010 vs —
  • Currency INR 82.50,RM 4.48, Rub 77.50 and Euro 1.0671






Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more