Athena Market Buzz

1530 15032023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened firm and by lunch we settled May contract at Rm 4020+38 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 4038+56. Today once again the markets are up because reports of higher export from Malaysia is making fob sellers proud on the other hand the same is actually reduced exports from Indonesia hence leaving not a major change in global SND. Indian side the demand is weak and we will repeat that current levels need to be sold and one can only think of owning the oil if the prices come below RM 3850-3750 range. Heat wave is actually reducing the consumption and here in India even soft oil is not moving much, which may eventually reduce the consumption of palm by competing in that space. Mdex by May should trade below RM 3500 and CPO prices to India CNF could trade around USD 900. There are not much bullish factors and once Indonesia comes back to sell their produce it will further push the prices lower. 


Bean oil settled mildly higher last night with May at 56.18 +32 and July at 56.40+40 which at the time of writing this report is trading at 5.11 -7 and 56.32 -8 respectively. We are waiting for CBOT to test the levels of 54.50 which we expect to happen soon  and it will only become worth making longs if the prices come between 52.50-54.50 and on basis level of -900 to -1000 are already good to go long. As mentioned before flat price CNF India of USD 1100-1150 is a very good range to make longs and currently the offers are at USD 1125 which makes it attractive proposition. Bean oil is finding competition from sunflower oil but soon we can see a short rally which could take soft oil complex higher. Soybean oil with limited supplies from Argentina could trade over USD 1200 India and thus we will suggest our readers to start looking at owning MJJ currently.  India is also thinking of putting import duties on palm oil which could support soft oils like Soya and sun and domestic crops of Rape seed. Indian inflation data is still high hence it appears that they can refrain from putting duties on soft oils. Locally Degum in India is offered at INR 950 and refine soybean oil is already 102-103 which we expect to trade below 100 mark soon. 


Black Sea Ukraine got the grain corridor extended for another 60 days. This will result in aggressive sunflower oil offers and also there is no hurry to keep the destinations full with stocks. Ukraine has another 1 million MT of sunflower oil to export and with supplies also from Russia and Argentina it will be tough to maintain current prices. India is already offered around USD 1100-1110 with limited or no buying interest. War is pushing crushers and producers to export as much and as early as possible which will keep the rally in check however once we reach June we will have very little oil to export and we will see sunflower oil prices getting premium over bean oil. Next years crop at the moment looks tough and with heat wave possibly reaching Russia and Ukraine it will have its adverse impact on yields. Lows of sunflower oil can be formed in AMJ but then over all market could bounce from lows and we won’t repeat the same prices till next year. 


  • ARG SBO
  • MA -850K vs -950K
  • MJJ -900 vs -1000
  • Jul -920 vs -950
  • AS/OND – vs -850
  • BR SBO
  • Apr -900 vs -950
  • May -900 vs -1000
  • JJ -870 vs -1000
  • AS -650 vs -850
  • OND -500 vs -850
  • 6 ports Europe Apr 1070 vs 1045
  • AMJ 1070 vs 1045
  • JAS 1085 vs 1060
  • OND 1070 v 1050
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : Jun 3965 (+31)
  • H 4010 / L 3941
  • Vol :  58,934
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 980 (pg) vs
  • Mj 950 vs 935
  • Jas 930 vs 922.5 trd 932.5-930
  • Ond 922.5 vs 915 trd 920
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Apr 940 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 730 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4230
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Mar 247 (pk) / 250 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1040
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 960
  • Rbdpks: Mar 1390
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5592 (-26)
  • Jul 5613 (-27)
  • Aug 5592 (-15)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7830 (+66)
  • Sep 7644 (+20)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 1000 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 990 vs—
  • Spain indicated for April 1080 vs —
  • Italy indicated for April 1075 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for April 1110 to do 1100 vs 1070
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.41, RM 4.473, Rub 75.80 and Euro 1.0737



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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