Athena Market Buzz

1530 14032023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday 

Good morning,

At the opening of the market, Mdex started lower, and by lunchtime, May settled at RM 4003, down 40 points, while June settled at RM 3957, down 43 points. At the time of writing this report, the prices for May and June have further dropped to RM 3989 (-54) and RM 3941 (-59), respectively. As mentioned in yesterday's report, the palm markets are expected to face challenges sustaining prices over MR 4000. The downward pressure is too much, and with a lack of demand, we could see prices testing RM 3750 for the active month soon. Additionally, prices for rival oils are also declining, which is creating additional pressure. With an ample supply of sunflower oil and soybean oil, we will likely see either MDEX correcting or very little palm demand, resulting in flat prices declining further.

During the summer months, overall demand for vegetable oil reduces for hotter destinations like India and China. The current weather is projecting heat waves, which could further limit consumption. India has sufficient soft oil stocks, good rape seed crop, and falling prices, which may also prompt the Indian government to propose a hike in import duties. All these factors indicate that palm will only find support between RM 3450-3550. At this level, one can again think of making a long position. Shorts who sold between RM 4000-4250 can wait to exit and look for levels of MR 3750-3650. India is currently offered at USD 1010, but these levels are not attractive, hence we don’t see any cash demand.

CBOT May settled -75 at 55.86 f and July down -77 at 56. The basis corrected a little, pushing flat prices further down. As mentioned before, CBOT will only find support between 52.50-54.0, and it's only a matter of time till we reach there. Overall, the market is technically overbought and needs to correct. On the other hand, destinations like India and China have long stocks, which reduces the replacement demand. The flat price to India for MJJ is indicated around USD 1120, which is about USD 20 higher than the support levels we target. We still feel that prices around USD 1100 will find support, and the basis should improve to keep the flat prices supported. CBOT could face selling pressure, and with India reporting heat waves, we also expect local markets to remain dull. Soybean seed prices are further down to INR 5300, and it appears soon they will be trading below 5100 factory delivery basis. Degum oil in India is indicated at INR 960, mostly at par with ROL, while refined soybean oil was offered at INR 102-103, depending on the location.


At present, Ukraine sunflower oil is the most affordable soft oil available, having traded at USD 1000 on FOB. Reports suggest that there are more sellers at the same price. The Black Sea grain corridor is being extended for another 60 days and is expected to face no issues during the war. Sunflower oil sellers to India are indicating prices of USD 1110, and they are willing to provide discounts if there is a bulk buyer. However, it seems that there is too much cargo in the hands of Indians, and significant demand is unlikely to emerge in the coming month. Sunflower oil prices are expected to continue to decline as they search for another 1 million MT of sunflower oil, which will face competition from Argentine and Russian sunflower oil. A tender is scheduled to take place in Egypt tomorrow, and the prices of sunflower oil for April shipment are expected to trade between USD 1060-1080. In India, crude sunflower oil traded in small volumes at JNPT at 990/-, and there are further sellers but no buyers at the moment.

  • Argentina SBO
  • Mar-23 -820/-930
  • Apr-23 -850/-950
  • MJJ-23 -900/-950
  • ASOND-23 –/-750
  • Brazil SBO
  • Apr-23 -780/-900
  • May-23 -870/-980
  • JJ-23  -850/-980
  • AS-23 -650/-850
  • OND-23 -500/-830
  • 6 ports Europe SFO 
  • Apr 1075 vs 1040
  • AMJ 1080 vs 1045
  • JAS 1085 vs 1055
  • OND 1080 vs 1050
  • Palm oil Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 3982 (-61)
  • H 4064 / L 3967
  • Vol :  74,942
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 965 (pg) vs 955
  • Mj 940 vs
  • Jas 920 vs 915 trd 920
  • Ond 915 vs trd 915
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Apr 940 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Apr 725 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4200
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Mar 246 (pk) / 249 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1035
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 955
  • Rbdpks: Mar 1385
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5596 (+10)
  • Jul 5614 (+14)
  • Aug 5582 (+17)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7738 (-162)
  • Sep 7590 (-154)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil April 1000 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil April 1000 vs 
  • Spain indicated April at USD 1100 vs —
  • Italy indicated April at USD 1090 vs —
  • CIF India indicated April at USD 1110 vs —
  • Turkey not indicated at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.29, RM 4.48, Rub 75.08, and euro 1.070



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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