Athena Market Buzz


1300 13032023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 

Good Morning , 


Mdex opened higher and at the opening itself made a high for may at RM 4130 but then settled lower at RM 4084 -9 around lunch. The market is volatile and is struggling hard to maintain the current levels. MPOB is expected to come out with bullish numbers reducing production which may give temporary support. Prices of Palm are costly and will see a lot of selling pressure. Demand at current prices is not present , stocks at destination countries like India are very high and it appears that it will be just a matter of time we break RM 4000 mark again. Spill over effect of financial issues in America could also be seen in other commodities and Chinese Data should also provide some direction. We will repeat that the current levels are good levels to exit long and may be even make small short and for buying one should wait for prices to correct around RM 3750 and in order to make longs one can target a level of RM 3550-3750. Rival oils specially sunflower oil is coming very cheap. Ukraine is currently dumping all its produce every where and the rate at which sunflower oil is being offered it will soon be available at palm prices. India is already full with lot of oil and with Rape seed crop being offered below MSP Indian government may also consider putting additional duty on Imports pushing international markets further lower. CNF India the offers for CPO are at USD 1020-1025 against this other oils specially sunflower oil is just USD 100 over. 


CBOT Bean oil settled down on Friday with May at 56.61 -45 and July at 56.77 -32.  Interestingly the basis too have not improved thus pushing the Flat price for bean oil lower. We expect CBOT to find support at 54.50-52.50 mark and this could make interesting buy. CNF India for MJJ is offered at 1135 and as mentioned before levels between USD 1100-1150 will be a good buy for bean oil. At current levels this oil is just about USD 100 over palm and also at par with the aggressive offers on sunflower oil. Demand however over all is very weak which is pushing the prices lower. We can expect some recovery in basis as the day progressed but largely we should be able to defend USD 1100 CNF India prices. Locally we saw reduced availability of beans due to holiday but prices were also lower and it will be seen if the arrivals improve back again. Locally in India beans are indicated at INR 5250-5350, refine soybean oil prices for hinterland are indicated at INR 1040-1050 and Degum is available at 985 in domestic market. We expect prices to correct more and if we take USD 1100 as base than local market could trade as low as INR 950 +duty  soon. 


Ukraine is continuously dumping their agri produce to every destination. Sunflower oil prices before the conference were at USD 1200 and now the indications are at USD 1140 with downward pull. The demand from destinations have totally disappeared and we don’t see any bids as well. Rumours about Russia closing the grain corridor pushed destinations to buy some more oil but it appears that the deal will be renewed. As per reports around 805 vessels have departed from the corridor during the deal period about 24 Mln MT. Turkey will be tendering for another 18000 mt of sunflower oil on 15th march and there will be some demand from India too for April shipment but we expect the trades will only happen if there is good discount to bean oil else it will be passed. Indian markets are very depressed and it appears that prices of local sunflower oil will correct further. Stocks are high and many origins are pushing their produce. If India does not increase the duty on imported sunflower oil it will be hard for government to protect the interest of Rape seed farmers. 


  • Argentina SBO
  • Mar-23 -810/-900
  • Apr-23 -850/-900
  • MJJ-23 -900/-950
  • Brazil SBO
  • Mar-23 –/-950
  • Apr-23 -800/-880
  • May-23 -800/-900
  • JJ-23  -850/-980
  • AS-23 -610/-900
  • OND-23 –/-850
  • 6 ports Europe Fridays close Spot 1085 vs 1075
  • Amj 1090 vs 1080
  • JAS 1090vs 1080
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : May 4084 (-9)
  • H 4130 / L 4061
  • Vol :  29,777
  • Oln:  
  • Apr 980 (pk) vs
  • Mj 960 vs
  • Jas 937.5/? vs 932.5 trd 935
  • Ond 927.5 vs 920
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Mar 955 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 735 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Mar 4300
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Mar 247 (pk) / 249 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Mar 1045
  • Rbdpkoln: Mar 965
  • Rbdpks: Mar 1395
  • Sbo :  
  • May 5700 (+39)
  • Jul 5716 (+39)
  • Aug 5679 (+36)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7872 (-116)
  • Sep 7728 (-94)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 1020 vs 1000
  • Russian sunflower oil indicative FOB 1020 vs 1000
  • Spain Indicated for April at USD 1140 vs 1100
  • Italy indicated for April at USD 1140 vs —
  • CIf India April shipment offered at USD 1145 vs 1100
  • Turkey last offered at USD 1080 vs —



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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