Market Buzz

1520 03022023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 

Good Morning, US cleared Sime Darby and this has helped MDEX bounce off from the supports of RM 3750. By lunch April was trading at RM 3824 _73 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3839+88 and its on it way to make triple digit gains. India which has not imported enough stock in the month of jan could relax a little in feb as well but will come back strongly in March, China on the other hand is showing good demand and stories around covid are not an event any more. Unrestricted travel and open economy is good for general consumption and this has already started showing in Chinese buying of soybeans and should translate the same in to palm as well. CPO prices to India were offered in the morning mostly unchanged to yesterday between USD 985-995 and we do hear some early interest in palm locally. We maintain our views that one should buy at supports of RM 3750 and to liquidate longs they can wait for prices to move over RM 4000, and price over RM 4450-5000 should be used to make shorts. It appears that the panic and tough time is over and we could see some demand very soon. 


Cbot bean oil settled marginally up last night with march at 60.94 +15 and May at 61.13 +10 which at the time of writing this report is trading at 60.63 -31 and 60.87 -26 respectively. Basis on the other hand have improved and thus we see slight upticks in flat prices of bean oil. CNF India offers for march shipment is around USD 1247 and April at USD 1215. We will repeat that with Palm moving higher there is a possibility of bean oil also taking a jump. Globally in the crush now the rally will be mostly depended on veg oil and with over al demand expected to pick up we could see our target levels for MA at USD 1150-1200 as a very good buy. We will once again suggest our readers to wait and pick up the dips when prices correct below USD 1200 for March and April , however one should wait for buying too far forward positions. 


Black Sea Ukraine sunflower oil prices are firming a little. We heard FOB market rumoured at USD 1080-1090 and CIF Turkey the indications were around USD 1180. India reportedly was offered at USD 1260 but we hear some trades for near by oil happening around the indicated levels, for forward month like Feb the buyers were at USD 1220 and best seller we heard was at USD 1240. War continues to disrupt the market and Ukrainian sellers are trying to market the existing crop as much as possible. Soon we can expect them to run out of stocks and situation could become very tight some where in JAS. New crop prospects will be good with the ongoing war and existing sunflower oil / seeds stocks would have majorly been committed. We would suggest our readers to be not overly bearish in sunflower oil and if the prices fall below Soybean oil they should not hesitate to make longs. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -650 vs -720
  • Mar -870 vs -940 
  • MJJ -1080 vs -1200 
  • BR SBO
  • Feb -550 vs -750
  • FM ??? vs -900
  • Mar ??? vs -1030
  • Apr -980 vs -1170
  • AM  -1000 vs -1180
  • JJ     -1000 vs -1180
  • AS ??? vs -1150
  • OND ??? vs -1070
  • 6 ports last close SFO 6 ports
  • FM    1185 vs -
  • AMJ  1195 vs - 
  • JAS    1215 vs -
  • OND  1205 vs -
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3824 (+73)
  • H 3843 / L 3731
  • Vol : 27,781 
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 950 vs 
  • Mar 955 vs 
  • Amj 960 vs 950
  • Jas 960 vs 950
  • Ond 960 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Feb 915 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 705 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3850
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 236 (pk) / 237 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1030
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 975
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1440
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 6090 (-4)
  • May 6113 (unch)
  • Jul 6105 (+3)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7748 (+36)
  • Sep 7750 (+34) 
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Indicated at 1080 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indicated at USD 1070 vs —
  • Spain indicated March at USD 1240 vs —
  • Italy indicated march at USD 1230 vs —‘
  • CIF India indicated for March at USD 1250 to do slightly lower vs 1220 ideas
  • Turkey indicated around 1180 vs -
  • Currency INR 81.75, RM 4.25, Rub 70.45, and Euro 1.0927


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Comments

New comments are not allowed.

Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more