Athena

1300 10022023 Athena Market Buzz Friday 


Mdex opened lower and by lunch we were triple digits down with April at RM 3861 -112. Interestingly this is consolidation phase where the longs are booking profit around RM 4000 and this is proving to be a strong resistance. Fed is still worried about inflation and hinted on raising interest rates which pushed other commodities also into negative adding extra pressure on Palm oil. We will maintain that palm looks to be an excellent buy between RM 3550-3750 for making longs and shorts can even start covering now. MDEX could find a lot of support at lower levels and it may bounce back hard. Our levels for shorting the market are still at RM 4250-4450 and we will request our readers not to get panicked when the market corrects. One should buy between RM 3550-3750 with a stop loss at RM 3450. CPO prices to India are largely quoted around USD 1000 for MARCH APRIL and MAY. At the time of writing this report MDEX April is trading at RM 3881 -92 which we expect should recover back over RM 3900 at the close. 



Cbot bean oil suffered triple digit losses after the fed still showed concerns over inflation and US showing larger crop. Bean oil settled march at 59.04 -154 and May at 59.17 -154. Repeating us We still expect bean oil to trade firm with good opportunity to make longs if the prices come between USD 1150-1200 for CNF India Feb/ march/ April  Shipments and domestically India should do away with TRQ on sunflower oil. India CNF Prices indicated for mach at USD 1225 and April at 1173 makes it just right for making long. Even for the months of May and June prices are below USD 1150 and are giving good opportunity to make longs. This oil is now the cheapest oil and will work for destinations like India and China. On the other hand sunflower oil is about USD 100 costly for forward months will fail to attract demand. Locally in India near by oil is still holding over INR 1040 and it should continue to trade here. 


War continues in Ukraine and Russian missiles attacks  Zaporizhiya region hitting mainly energy infrastructure . This is pushing Ukraine to seek more and more weapons defusing any chance of a peace talk. Ukraine sunflower oil last traded into India at USD 1215 and there were further sellers at the same price with little or no demand. Sunflower oil imports are high and so is the stock. With war extending almost every crushers in Ukraine has become a exporter. This is resulting in multiple offers from same company and other origins are also trying to compete. We hear Argentine origin cargo to India also traded for forward months at USD 1185 and today there are no buyers for the same. Sunflower oil forward months is quoted about USD 80-90 premium over bean oil and this will make it difficult to market. We would suggest our readers not to make any more longs for forward months but continue to hold on to near by cargo and spot shipments. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -550 vs -700
  • Mar -720 vs -800 
  • MJJ -1150 vs -1200 
  • BR SBO
  • Mar  -650 vs -780
  • APR -940 vs -1080
  • MAY -950 vs -1150
  • JJ    -950 vs -1150
  • OND   .... vs -1050
  • 6 ports Europe Mch 1170 vs -
  • AMJ 1200 vs -
  • JAS 1215 vs 
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close (Pre MPOB)
  • Bmd : Apr 3861 (-112)
  • H 3985 / L 3849
  • Vol :  28,742
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 947.5 vs 
  • Mar 947.5 vs 
  • Amj 952.5 vs 950 trd 952.5  
  • Jas 947.5 vs 942.5 trd 947.5
  • Ond 945 vs 935
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Feb 910 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 692.5 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3900
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 233 (pk) / 234 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1015
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 955
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1390
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 5896 (-8)
  • May 5910 (-7)
  • Jul 5904 (-7)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7798 (-222)
  • Sep 7710 (-212)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 1060 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 1050 vs —
  • Spain indicated march at USD 1210 vs —
  • Italy indicated March at USD 1205. Vs —
  • CIF India indicated march at USD 1215 vs — April argie traded india at USD 1185
  • Turkey not offered at the moment. 


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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