Athena Market Buzz

1500 08022023 Athena Market Buzz wed 


Mdex as expected has managed to cross resistance of RM 4000 and we will now look to touch 4450 as next resistance with a little consolidation around RM 4250. Longs can now start liquidating their position all the way till RM 4250 and one can wait for prices to jump over RM 4450 to go short in this market. Reasons for bullish to supportive market is the change in policy by Indonesia where in they insist more oil to be available for local market. They will release the balance quota for export only in the month of May which will be used to ease out the prices in second half of the year. Malaysian stocks  will be tight as well and with exports redirecting towards them should push the prices higher. Brent too is holding firm and is trading at 85 with surprise hike Arab light we could see some more gains in Brent which again should be supportive of Palm. At the time of writing this report MDEX is trading April at RM 4007 and if we manage to close today/ tomorrow  over RM 4000 then we can find new supports at RM 4000. CNF India the prices of CPO were offered at USD 1010-1020 and we have seen some good business as well. 


CBOT bean oil settled March 60.89+158 and May at 60.98 +148 with basis mostly unchanged on the offer at -550 for feb and -650 for march pushing the FOB flat prices higher for Feb to USD 1221 and for March at USD 1199. At the time of writing this report bean oil is trading marginally higher for March at 61.03 and May at 61.09. With large crop in beans we could expect bearishness in meal but veg oil should remain relatively firm. We still expect bean oil to trade firm with good opportunity to make longs if the prices come between USD 1150-1200 for CNF India Feb/ march/ April  Shipments and domestically India should do away with TRQ on sunflower oil giving some more room for bean oil to trade freely. Domestically most of the sellers for spot cargo are asking a price of INR 1090-1100 for bean oil which is slightly higher then the offers on sunflower oil but we have heard good demand. It appears that the prices of INR 1000 should remain firm and it will be hard for India to break this barrier any time soon. Long term supports for CBOT comes at 52.50 with basis may be turning green and resistance comes at 64.50 beyond which we could see more pressure on basis. 

 

India received over 400k of sunflower oil in the month of Jan and now arrivals of Feb will be much lower giving support to local markets. Turkish earthquake has slowed the grain corridor for a while but it seems be functioning fine now. Russia is threatening to stop grain corridor which is causing a little panic amongst the exporter. CIF Offers to India are at USD 1230 and the same was offered for Spain as well. With war not ending soon it appears that Ukraine will continue to ask for more weapons and eventually this should result in more wide spread escalation till than we should keep the cargo at destinations and we suggest our readers to continue to hold on to the stocks and keep replacing it with near by cargo. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -550 vs -630
  • Mch -650 vs -750
  • MJJ -950 vs -1100
  • BR SBO
  • Mch -650 vs -830
  • Apr -920 vs -
  • AM -950 vs -1200
  • JJ -970 vs -1200
  • AS – vs -1050
  • OND – vs 980
  • 6 ports Europe Feb 1165 vs 1145
  • Mch 1175 vs 1145
  • AMJ  1190 vs 1155
  • JAS   1200 vs 1165
  • OND  1195 vs 1155
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3936 (-3)
  • H 4002 / L 3913
  • Vol :  32,223
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 970 vs 
  • Mar 970 vs 
  • Amj 972.5 vs 965  trd 970
  • Jas 967.5 vs 962.5 trd 965
  • Ond 965 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Feb 925 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 705 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3950
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 238 (pk) / 238 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1040
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 975
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1440
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 6095 (+6)
  • May 6106 (+8)
  • Jul 6093 (+10)
  • Dce :  
  • May 8018 (+98)
  • Sep 7874 (+24)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 1070 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 1060 vs —
  • Spain indicated March at FOB 1230 vs —
  • Italy indicated March at FOB 1225 vs —
  • CIF India offered March at USD 1230 vs buyers at 1215
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.71, RM 4.29, Euro 1.073 and Rub 69.25




Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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