Athena Market Buzz

1500 07022023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 

Good Morning, Our sympathies with the earthquake victims of Turkey and near by regions. May they get courage to cope up with the same. 


Mdex opened about 2% higher and by lunch the growth was maintained with April settling at RM 3926 +85 which at the time of writing this report is still trading at RM 3932 +81. Our target for a bounce till RM 4000 is still taking shape and we expect that with the news of Indonesia trying to export less and less oil will have profound impact and prices on MDEX could go higher and may even try to test RM 4400 mark. As mentioned before the markets are range bound and one should not hesitate to buy cargo between RM 3500-3750 and can sell the same for profit booking just over RM 4000 however for making shorts one can wait till prices cross RM 4250-RM 4450. Post may when export quotas will be given back in the market we could see some pressure on MDEX till then one can expect range bound trading. CPO India traded in the morning at USD 1002- and small parcel at 995 but we have not heard and local trades in INR.


Basis have improved to -500 for the near by but the board has not corrected much resulting in higher flat prices. We expected CBOT to correct towards 54.50 and basis to improve to -500 or -300 at least making flat price bean oil fall some where between USD 1150-1200 which has not happen so far. With crude oil prices edging higher , MDEX moving higher and demand from India and other destinations like China improving we are maintaining the supports of 57.50 on CBOT and basis holding very near -500 making flat price India offers at USD 1250 for march and USD 1190-1200 for April. As mentioned before prices between USD 1150-1200 becomes attractive for cargoes upto April and any further one should wait for price direction from the out come of war and domestic Indian rape seed crop. Soybeans are holding well in Indian market and its expected that even after arrival of rape seed crop the beans should hold between INR 5000-5500 mark with a tendency to move higher towards INR 6000 occasionally. Refine soya prices in hinterland are maintained at INR 1150 with Degum port selling ideas around INR 1100-1090. 


Ukraine is trying to defend the east part from Russia and it does not appear that the conflict ends soon. UN/ Europe and rest of the world are debating over a bigger war this year and this could surely result in rising cost specially for Sunflower oil. Currently panic struck Ukraine is trying to export as much as possible and this is resulting in a price war with other origins. Last evening Ukraine offer to India was around USD 1230 for march shipment and Spot cargo was indicated at USD 1250 with little buying interest. Russian cargo to India was offered at USD 1220 to do lower and the bids we hear were in the range of USD 1190-1200.  6 ports Europe was trading lower at USD 1165/1175 depending on the position installing little to no confidence. Other destinations are looking cheaper soybean oil prices and staying away from pricing too far forwards. We would suggest our readers to hold on to at least 45 days inventory. Things could take an ugly turn and in order to tide the same one should have supply chain managed of course one can look at cross commodity arbitrage to hedge but we suggest not to go short on sunflower oil. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -520 vs -580
  • Mch -670 vs -720
  • MJJ -950 vs -1100
  • BR SBO
  • FM – vs -750
  • Mch - vs -750
  • Apr -970 vs -1120
  • AM -970 vs -1130
  • JJ -970 vs -1130
  • AS – vs -1080
  • OND – vs 1000
  • 6 ports Europe Feb  1175 V 1140
  • Mch 1185 V 1145
  • AMJ  1195 V 1155
  • JAS  1200 V 1165
  • OND  1195 V 1155
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3936 (+85)
  • H 3945 / L 3888
  • Vol :  28,097
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 970 vs 
  • Mar 972.5 vs 
  • Amj 975 vs 967.5 
  • Jas 970 vs 962.5
  • Ond 967.5 vs 
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Feb 930 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Feb 710 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3950
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 238 (pk) / 238 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1040
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 980
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1445
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 5952 (+21)
  • May 5972 (+22)
  • Jul 5975 (+29)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7978 (+158)
  • Sep 7892 (+102)
  • Black Sea Ukraine FOB 1080 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB 1070 vs —
  • Spain indicated for March at USD 1225 vs —
  • Italy indicated for March at USD 1220 vs —
  • CNF India indications for March cargo optional origin USD 1230 vs1190
  • Turkey not indicated toady last traded at USD 1220
  • Currency INR 82.65, RM 4.30, Rub 70.88 and euro 1.0719



Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


Popular posts from this blog

Athena Market Buzz

1430 07082024 ATHENAMARKETBUZZ WEDNESDAY Good Morning, **MDEX Markets:** Equity markets have been quite volatile, with Japan leading the fluctuations. After significant losses, the market rebounded yesterday and partially today. However, MDEX performed as anticipated, dropping below the RM 3750 mark. Traders might misinterpret this and suggest short positions or exiting longs. Previously, we recommended entering long positions between RM 3550-3650 and exiting between RM 3950-4000. Now, we suggest initiating longs between RM 3650-3750 and exiting around RM 4000. Currently, October contracts are trading at RM 3695-10, near the day's low. Given the global tensions and unstable business environment, commodities may become a new hard currency. Shorting at RM 4250 and above seems safe for now, but we will reassess as conditions evolve. **Palm Oil CASH Market:** CNF India traded several times yesterday for ROL between USD 940-92.50, and today sellers are around USD 940, but buyers are hes...
Read more

Athena Market Buzz Friday

1400 27012023 Athena Market Buzz Friday  Mdex opened firm and as expected jump from 3750 is targeting RM 4000 on the upside where it may feel some more resistance. At lunch MDEX settled at RM 3857 +1.9% and at the time of writing this report is also trading around there only. Exports are slowly picking up and the loss of export will be lesser as we look at 1-31 Jan export numbers. We expect today the markets to remain firm and with some more strength coming in soft oils flat price we could attempt to touch RM 3900 today or early next week. Over all view is same  a maximum 10% downside risk around RM 3750 with a potential of 20% jump eventually. We would suggest our readers to make longs between RM 3450-3750 and sell it once we cross RM 4000 . Be ready to short the market once we cross RM 4250-4450.  CPO prices to India are maintained at USD 995-1005 and we expect it to find decent support here. Locally ROL is trading in India at 900 and we heard some business WCI already....
Read more

AthenaBUzz

1530 14092023 Athena Market Buzz Thursday  Good Afternoon, India imported over 295,000 mt of sunflower oil in the month of Aug and we expect that the imports for Sept will be in excess of 250,000 MT again pushing the 6 monthly imports to around 1.7 million MT. These are high numbers and it appears that the demand for sunflower oil will continue to rise with the current discounts and in next 6 months India may end up importing another 2 million MT of sunflower oil making yearly total to 3.5 Million MT for April 2023-March 2024. The excess oil is basically imported by  Kandla based traders who do not won Refinary and cumulatively this is about 300,000 mt. in past 5 months. Ukraine sunflower oil is getting aggressively offered to India at USD 865/870 , CIF Marmara we heard trades at USD 775 and Mersin traded at USD 780 today the offers are about USD 10 higher but we expect the same prices to trade again. India too bought some volume about 18,000 mt in east coast at USD 860 with f...
Read more