Athena Market Buzz

1300 13022023 Athena Market Buzz Monday 

Mdex opened marginally firm and made a high of RM 3966 immediately after opening but then the rumours subsided and profit taking prevailed resulting in market coming down. April by lunch settled at RM 3896 -35 which at the time of writing this report is trading at RM 3885 -46. Palm will continue to consolidate before it rallies as rival oil specially bean oil is trading at USD 120-140 premium only for forward months. Looking at cheaper Soft oil and increased mandate to consume the same for Local markets in Indonesia and Malaysia we could see Palm remaining between RM 3750-RM 4000 with upside potential of RM 4250. We will repeat that prices if correct lower MDEX becomes a buy between RM 3550-3650 and price over RM 4250 are worth making a short.   1-10 exports from Malaysia are showing at 32% jump which could push MDEX higher in second half of the day today. War was already causing issues with commodities and now Indonesia gets jolted by an earthquake,  some scientist also fear an Earthquake for Indian region which may make things clouded for some days. Indian market was offered CPO between USD 1000-1010 and locally ROL was indicated at INR 97,000 but we have not heard any trade. Saturday India was buzz with rumours and we heard very good trades around INR 97,000/- and CPO traded at 83,000/-. 


CBOT Bean oil settle higher on Friday after making a loss in triple digits on Thursday . The recovery resulted in pushing March to 60.54 + 150 and May to 60.66 +149 which at the time of writing this report is trading down 60 points. Basis on the other hand corrected a little but flat price bean oil India was still offered higher at USD 1160 for April and May against Fridays offer for April at 1160 and May at USD 1135. As mentioned before prices between USD 1100-1150 becomes very good buy for new crop May/June and price between 1150-1200 becomes a good buy for April , for SPOT cargoes one can buy between USD 1200-1250 and it will continue to give opportunity on the up side to sell. CBOT bean oil finds support at the moment at 57.50 but we expect the market to correct eventually to 54.50 with basis improving over -500 for May and June and current flat prices on bean oil are actually very attractive to make longs. Spread between bean oil and soybean oil is narrowed , Sunflower oil costly hence India and other destinations will continue to consume bean oil  imparting supports at lower level. China on the other hand could restrict buying soybeans in large volumes  from US looking at current political situation and India too harvesting a good rape crop may result in a slowdown in Imports but all this should keep the board well supported till 54.50 , basis on the other hand could firm up looking at Argentine dry weather. Our readers are advised to take advantage of any sudden correction and maintain / or go long at suggested  levels with a stop loss of 52.50. 


Ukraine exported over 400,000 mt of oil again in Jan and it appears that the crush is happening fast. War is entering a stage where there could be delays in shipments and hence most of the crushers and traders are trying to export maximum sunflower oil to the market. India was offered at USD 1215 on Friday and mostly the offers remain the same today as well. We heard some trades between 1180 for Argentine parcel and USD 1215 for Ukraine / Russian origin which today seems difficult. Demand for sunflower oil in south looks better and with voices about removing existing TRQ the beneficiaries are trying to also consume oil at the earliest. This could result in a small spike in local prices but eventually it should find resistance just around INR 115,000 mark. In local market the support for crude stays at INR 105,000 where we don’t see aggressive sellers. We would suggest our readers to not to hurry in making longs for forward months but continue to replenish inventories with SPOT cargo. 


  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -550 vs -700
  • Mar -720 vs -800 
  • MJJ -1150 vs -1200 
  • BR SBO
  • Mar  -650 vs -780
  • APR -940 vs -1080
  • MAY -950 vs -1150
  • JJ    -950 vs -1150
  • OND   .... vs -1050
  • 6 ports Europe Sunoil 
  • Mar 1170 vs 1135
  • AMJ  1190 vs 1145
  • JAS   1200 vs 1160
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Apr 3896 (-35)
  • H 3966 / L 3891
  • Vol :  10,923
  • Oln: 
  • Feb 945 vs 
  • Mar 947.5 vs 
  • Amj 955 vs 950  
  • Jas 950 vs 945 trd 947.5
  • Ond 947.5 vs 937.5
  • Rbdpo: -10
  • Strn: Mar 912.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Mar 695 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Feb 3920
  • Laurics:
  • Cpko: Feb 235 (pk) / 235 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Feb 1020
  • Rbdpkoln: Feb 955
  • Rbdpks: Feb 1390
  • Sbo : 
  • Mar 6003 (-51)
  • May 6017 (-49)
  • Jul 6009 (-50)
  • Dce :  
  • May 7834 (-64)
  • Sep 7748 (-48)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil FOB 1060 toady 1050
  • Russian sunflower oil FOB indications at USD 1050 vs —
  • Spain indicated march at USD 1210 vs —
  • Italy indicated march at USD 1205 vs —
  • CNF India indicated for March / April at USD 1215 vs 1190
  • Turkey not offered at the moment 
  • Currency INR 82.65, RM 4.35, Rub 73.53 and Euro 1.0684


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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