Athena Market Buzz

1500 24012023 Athena Market Buzz Tuesday 



A very happy Chinese new year to every one , may the year of rabbit 🐇  makes you all prosperous and productive.  MDEX is closed even today and the markets will open tomorrow. As expected the Palm markets have defended the correction and has kept over RM 3750 last week and this week too the supports will be tested and we expect that the prices could remain very range bound between RM 3750-4000 but could be very volatile. Sentiments are weak and destinations like India are full with stocks. China will come back only next week till then the direction to this market will either come from Crude oil or from US markets. Brent is now nearing 89 and as expected it may soon go to 100 rubbishing all the rumours about economic slow down which should help palm technically. We will repeat that prices between RM 3450-3750 are worth making longs and prices around RM 4450 and higher are worth making shorts, In between key supports like RM 3750 should be used to buy back shorts and key resistances like RM 4000-4250 should be used to sell back longs. Flat price CPO is indicated into India at USD 1000 but we have not heard any news. Rumours about extending duty on import of ROL in India should favour CPO and over all we don’t see a major correction below RM 3250 in palm at least for next 3 months. 


Bean oil after trading low managed to jump up and settled March at 62.04 +7 and May at 62.05 +7 which at the time of writing this report is trading March at 61.57 -47 and May at 61.57 -48. Both the months have correct below key support of 62.50 and its expected that we may trade little lower keep 57.50 as key support. Basis on the other hand have maintained unchanged levels for Feb at -870 and for March at -1000 which is expected to jump if CBOT corrects putting little change to flat price bean oil. CNF India the offers for bean oil are at USD 1258 for Feb and USD 1230-1225 for March April we repeat that pries between USD 1200-1250 are worth making longs for spot cargoes and prices between 1150-1200 becomes attractive for forward months like FM. Beans on the other hand are having mixed opinions. On one hand rains in Argentina could be sufficient but the yield and crop is still doubtful on the other hand Brazil is coming up with a large crop which could put pressure on beans. Over all it looks bearish beans, bearish meal but supportive oil for 2023. India is already exporting more meal and could export double of last year helping domestic crush. Locally in India the sellers for bean oil are indicating prices at USD 1080-1100 depending on the position of cargo and buyers on the other hand are paying slightly lower. We have heard some ready business done in India at INR 1080 at JNPT and there were further buyers with sellers asking little higher. 



Ukraine sunflowers oil sellers to India are indicating at USD 1250 on the offer side. They will have strong competition with Argentine crop which could be available much lower. Bean oil for forward months is already offered at USD 1230 and sunflower oil could even trade USD 30-50 discount to Argentine bean oil indications. Indian market has already discounted lower prices and higher stocks and any change in SND could only be bullish. Currently the sentiments are poor and established traders are looking for a strong correction which becomes a fuel for next rally. We maintain our view of pricing sunflower oil SPOT below 1250 and pricing for forward months should be avoided unless its at 40-50 discount to bean oil. Locally in India Ukraine continues to ask for more tanks and military equipments while they also hope to keep a check on corruption. The war will move wider in 2023 before it finds a solution and till then we expect the time and trade to remain vey turbulent. 



  • ARG SBO
  • Feb -870 vs -900
  • Mch -1000 vs -1150
  • MJJ -1050 vs -1250
  • BR SBO
  • Feb -900 vs -960
  • Mch -1070 vs -1150
  • AM -1150 vs -1250
  • JJ -1150 vs -1250
  • AS – vs -1120
  • OND - vs -1100
  • 6 ports Europe SFO 6 ports, $
  • Feb  1190 vs -
  • Mch 1195 vs -
  • AMJ  1210 vs -
  • JAS 1225 vs -
  • OND  1210 vs -
  • Palm oil Market closed .
  • Black Sea sunflower oil Feb/ March Spot 1170 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil indications at USD 1165 vs —
  • Spain indicated Feb at USD 1250 vs—
  • Italy indicated Feb at USD 1245 vs —
  • CIF India indicated  Feb at USD 1250 Ukraine , 1240 Russian vs —
  • Turkey indicated at USD 1230 vs —
  • Currency INR 81.66, RM 4.28, Rub 68.79, and Euro 1.0866

Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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