Athena Market Buzz

1300 25052023 Athena Market Buzz Wednesday 


Good Morning ,


Mdex opened firmer and by lunch we settled Aug at RM 3417+39 which is expected to remain mostly sideways due to lack of any bullish factors. Palm production in Malaysia is increasing (like 9% over April month) but the consumption is countries like India and china is decreasing this will eventually help build the stocks back up and increase pressure on prices. Indian market is totally lack lustre and if the production increase continues with no new factors we will not be surprised if MDEX breaks the RM 3150 levels and trade even lower. For the time being we expect that the USA debt ceiling will be increased and US will avoid the default but if that does not happen then we will see further pressure on over all Agri complex which will have a profound impact on Palm Prices too.  Palm mostly should remain in tight range and gradually drift towards RM 3150 mark where we should see funds making longs and shorts even exiting their positions. We would suggest our readers to make longs below RM 3250 and exit their longs once we cross RM 3550 mark with RM 3750 as resistance. India was offered in the morning at USD 840 for most of the positions with absolutely no buying interest. 


US planting pace is fast and is expecting a bumper crop, external markets were giving mixed signals with crude oil up about 2% giving some hope that prices may eventually bounce back up. CBOT settled July -101 at 47.76 and Aug -92 at 47.87which at the time of writing this report is also trading around 47.77 and 47.91 respectively.  We are higher from the recent lows of 45.70 and its expected that we will mostly defend 45.00. We suggest our readers to watch the USA crop and the talk around debt default carefully and buy only when we see a clarity in financial markets. With this in mind the supports should be around 45.00 with a stop loss at 42.50 one can make longs and can exit longs if prices touch 50.00. Basis on the other hand will firm up to -500 and with the increased supply , depressed sentiments and lower demand we don’t expect it to go much higher thus making a price bottom of USD  870-880 on FOB which is actually the current market. Any correction here in prices should be considered as an opportunity to buy and market will face resistance to cross USD 1000 on FOB. CNF India the prices are offered for JAS at USD 955 and we have not heard any major trades. Locally in India soybean seed prices are holding on to INR 5100 mark, Solvent oil hinterland 84,500 and Refine soybean oil trading ar INR 91,000/- ex Plant basis. 


Ukraine is selling its produce aggressively and on sunflower oil it appears they have about 2 million MT more sunseeds which will continue to pressure the market. Sunflower oil is now the cheapest soft oil but is finding hard to sell specially in Europe where the rape seed oil is locally available. Understand FOB prices of rape oil are about USD 880 and compared to it the sunflower oil landed is costing just over USD 900 making it treadless. India the offers for sunflower oil are at USD 925 for June/ July and though we are seeing spot buying but forwards are still not getting traded. We will repeat that sunflower oil prices are now eventless and will rotate in a 5% bracket till we see any major decision on war or any other macro factor influencing the current dull market. The price action from now can only be bullish as most of the bearish reasons are already factored including the war.


  • Argentina SBO
  • Jun 23 -740/-800
  • Jul 23 -800/-850
  • AS 23 -770/-870
  • OND 23 -670/-750
  • Brazil SBO
  • Jun 23  –/-800
  • Jul 23  -770/-850
  • Aug 23 -780/-860
  • AS 23 -760/–
  • OND 23 -600/-780
  • JF 24 –/-850
  • Mch 24 -730/-1000
  • 6 ports Europe June USD 880 vs 850
  • JAS USD 885 vs 870
  • OND USD 875 vs nb
  • Palm oil Midday Market Close 
  • Bmd : Aug 3417 (+39)
  • H 3433 / L 3387
  • Vol :  32,371
  • Oln:   
  • Jun 825 vs 
  • Jas 815 vs 812.5 trd 812.5
  • Ond 807.5 vs 805 trd 805
  • Jfm 815/12.5 vs 810
  • Rbdpo: -7.5
  • Strn: Jun 787.5 (deld) 
  • Pfad: Jun 755 (deld)
  • Local Cpo: Jun 3600 
  • Laurics
  • Cpko: Jun 234 (pk) / 237 (pg)
  • Rbdpko: Jun 965
  • Rbdpkoln: Jun 905
  • Rbdpks : Jun 1240
  • Sbo : 
  • Jul 4794 (+18)
  • Aug 4801 (+14)
  • Sep 4793 (+16)
  • Dce :  
  • Sep 6720 (+30)
  • Jan 6600 (+22)
  • Black Sea sunflower oil June FOB 800 vs —
  • Russian sunflower oil June 800 vs —
  • Spain indicated June at USD 900 vs —
  • Italy indicated June at USD 895 vs —
  • CIF India indicated for June USD 925 vs 900
  • Turkiye - Russian sellers are indicated at USD 855 vs 810 
  • Currency INR 82.72, RM 4.58, Rub 80.08 and Euro 1.0778


Thanks and regards


Vivek Pathak 

Athena Tradewinds 

(All views are personal and we do not claim to be 100 % correct. Trade very carefully and at your own risk) 

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